Progressive Beats Out Moderate Democrat In New Jersey Suburbs

Progressive activist Analilia Mejia won the Democratic primary in a special election to represent the New Jersey suburbs in Congress, a significant win for the left in the ongoing battles over the party’s ideological direction and a massive own goal by pro-Israel groups who attacked the front-runner in the race.

Her victory became official when former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who had been trailing Mejia by less than a thousand votes since election night last Thursday, conceded on Tuesday morning.

Mejia campaigned with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), and had the backing of a host of other left-wing groups and figures. A former political director for Sanders’ presidential campaign and leader of the progressive Center for Popular Democracy, Mejia began the race with significantly less name identification than her opponents, but benefited from both high-profile endorsements and from Democrats’ increased opposition to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

“Traditional politics and the same ol’ blue is not going to be effective in confronting MAGA Trumpism and a corrupt administration,” she said in an interview before the election. “I wanted a different voice for myself, and I know that my friends and neighbors in the district did too.”

In a press conference the day after her win, Mejia said voters appreciated her push to abolish ICE and replace the nation’s internal immigration enforcement agency.

“You cannot watch what’s happening in Minnesota, what happened in Chicago, what happened in California, what happened in Morristown across this district — you can’t look at it and not see it for what it is,” she said. “ICE is completely overreaching. It’s a bloated agency that I believe cannot be reformed. It’s only existed for 22 years. It must be replaced by something that isn’t violent.”

What makes Mejia’s win remarkable is both whom she beat and where she won. She not only defeated the race’s front-runner, former Rep. Tom Malinowski, but also the preferred candidate of New Jersey’s once-feared political machine, Essex County Councilmember Brendan Gill, and former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who received millions of dollars of outside support and was the preferred candidate of pro-Israel groups.

And the 11th District, which was previously held by moderate Gov. Mikie Sherrill and consists of suburbs in northern and central New Jersey, is not like most other districts represented by progressives. It’s highly educated, majority white and wealthy.

It’s also far less Democratic than the other districts represented by the Squad members Mejia is often compared to: The 11th District has a Cook partisan voter index score of just D+5, compared to D+19 for Ocasio-Cortez’s district and D+32, D+21 and D+34 for districts represented by Reps. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts.

While the race served as a preview to the upcoming Democratic primary season, elements of Mejia’s win may be difficult for the left to replicate elsewhere. The divided field ― there were four candidates seen as truly competitive, plus a handful more who waged real campaigns ― allowed Mejia to win with roughly 30% of the vote. And in many races, a candidate with Mejia’s ideological profile will suffer from heavy outside spending rather than benefit from it.

The decision by United Democracy Project, an AIPAC-linked super PAC, to spend $3 million attacking Malinowski over his support for putting conditions on aid to Israel, however, clearly backfired here. The super PAC’s ads targeted Malinowski for voting to fund ICE during an earlier stint in Congress, which ultimately benefited Mejia, who takes a more critical line on Israel ― she’s called the assault on Gaza a “genocide” ― than the former congressman.

Mejia is a strong favorite to win the general election in the race in April, but will have to run in another Democratic primary in June and win another general election in November to earn a full term. While Malinowski and Gill both said they would not run for a full term if they lost the special election, Way has not.

In a statement, United Democracy Project indicated both that it was aware of the risk it took in attacking Malinowski and that it could get involved in the June primary to stop Mejia from winning a full term.

“The outcome in NJ-11 was an anticipated possibility, and our focus remains on who will serve the next full term in Congress,” the group said. “UDP will be closely monitoring dozens of primary races, including the June NJ-11 primary, to help ensure pro-Israel candidates are elected to Congress.”

In his concession statement, Malinowski tore into AIPAC and UDP and warned them against getting involved in the June primary.

“Our Democratic Party should have nothing to do with a pro-Trump, billionaire-funded organization that demands absolute fealty to positions that are outside the mainstream of the American pro-Israel community, and then smears those who don’t fall into line,” he wrote. “If AIPAC backs a candidate ― openly or surreptitiously ― in the June NJ-11 Congressional primary, I will oppose that candidate and urge my supporters to do so as well.”