If you were planning on having fresh guacamole as part of the spread for your Super Bowl party, you might want to head to the grocery store before Tuesday. The reason? The looming tit-for-tat trade war between the U.S. and Mexico, Canada and China.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump announced he was imposing 25% tariffs on most goods from Mexico and Canada, prompting the leaders of both countries to say they would impose their own surtaxes on U.S.-made goods sold in their countries.
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The timing could not have been worse for one needed ingredient on the shopping list of fresh-from-scratch snack fans: avocados. The innards of the dark green fruits are used to make guacamole, which, along with salsa, is a Super Bowl spread staple.
The United States is heavily dependent on Mexico for avocados, and the Super Bowl football game is the metaphorical Super Bowl for the avocado importing industry.
According to Avocados From Mexico, an industry marketing group, 95% of avocados sold leading up to the Super Bowl are from Mexico, requiring about 250 million pounds of avocados to be brought across the border in the weeks before the game. (Or, as a recent Avocados From Mexico press release cheerily said, “Enough to fill 30 million football helmets with guacamole.”)
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This year, the game is on Feb. 9, five days after the tariffs are slated to take effect.
While most of those avocados have presumably already made it across the border, shoppers looking for the freshest avocados may be holding off on purchasing them until closer to the game — and possibly paying higher prices. Most economists say tariffs are passed on to consumers as higher prices.
Avocados aren’t the only thing on the living room table that could be affected by the tariffs. Mexico is also a major supplier of tomatoes, which joined avocados as the party ingredient that’s gone up the most since last year’s Super Bowl, by one estimate. And that was before the tariffs were announced.
A Wells Fargo analysis in January based on prices scanned at grocery store checkouts projected Super Bowl food prices to be up only a modest 0.1% compared to last year. But the foods with the biggest price gains were cherry tomatoes and avocados. Tomato prices were projected to be up 11.9% while avocado prices were forecasted to be up 11.5%.
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The economic impact of all those avocados is especially felt in Texas and California, according to a September 2024 industry-backed paper by Gary Williams, an emeritus professor at Texas A&M University, and Dan Hanselka, an extension program specialist also with Texas A&M.
The paper said the two states consume the most avocados, with California importing almost $602 million worth of Mexican avocados from mid-2023 to mid-2024 and Texas bringing in $285 million worth.
The paper also noted that a dollar spent on importing avocados generated $2.13 in economic activity in the U.S., resulting in 42,112 American jobs. A bit more than 5,000 of those were in California and almost 3,000 in Texas, the report said.
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“The primary implication of this update study is clear and straight forward — imports of Mexican Hass avocados continue to be pro-growth for the U.S. economy,” the authors wrote.
The Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, a trade group based in Nogales, Arizona, that represents food importers and distributors, said Saturday they supported Trump’s desire to strengthen the border but said tariffs may not help do that and could also hurt efforts to get Americans to eat healthier.
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The group is also worried that workers in the industry will lose their jobs.
“FPAA members are important U.S. job creators, and they play an integral role in supporting America’s healthy eating habits, especially during times when domestic farms cannot supply enough produce. There is concern that tariffs would negatively impact U.S. jobs,” the group said in a statement.
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