More than 31 million Americans have already cast their ballots in a presidential race that at times feels like it will never end. Both campaigns are now sifting through the early return data with the hope of better understanding how crucial swing state voters will behave on Election Day.
For now, those early voting numbers favor Democrats by the slightest of margins, with 43% of early ballots submitted by registered Democrats compared to just 39% for registered Republicans. But drawing insight from early voting is a risky proposition, especially when Election Day turnout remains a significant unknown. That hasn’t stopped the Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign from touting their above-average performance among two key demographics: women and younger voters.
The campaign has been open about the fact that rallying women and young people is a critical element of the Democratic nominee’s victory strategy. Here’s what the data tells us right now, and what it could mean for both candidates as the presidential contest races to a conclusion on Nov. 5.
The Harris campaign can take some comfort in the fact that women—and especially Gen Z and millennial women—are still showing up to the polls at record-breaking levels two years after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. According to data compiled by NBC News, nearly 900,000 more women than men have cast early ballots across seven key swing states. But state turnout numbers aren’t created equal.
In must-win Pennsylvania, for example, women have outpaced men in early voting returns by an eye-popping 13 points. Women are also posting historic early turnout margins in Michigan (+14), Wisconsin (+12), Georgia (+12) and North Carolina (+9). But the Harris campaign’s eyes remain fixed on Nevada, where for the first time men outnumber women in early turnout by 3 points.
Nevada remains a headache for Harris’ field team. Four years of GOP efforts to warm their supporters to early voting seem to be paying off, with registered Republicans taking a 4-point lead in overall early election returns. That’s normally an area where Democrats thrive, yet early indicators point to a nail-biter of a race that Nevada election experts say is a warning sign for Harris. If Nevada falls into Republican nominee Donald Trump’s column on election night, Harris’ path to victory will depend almost entirely on capturing Pennsylvania.
One major wild card: Nevada’s ballot referendum enshrining abortion rights into the state constitution. Those types of state measures have previously bolstered Democratic Election Day turnout, and it’s no coincidence that Harris’ field operation in the Silver State is now focusing heavily on abortion messaging. That’s a smart play, because a slate of new polls indicates abortion is the most effective issue for engaging both women and younger voters.
A new NBC News poll finds that fully one-half of younger voters support Harris, compared to just one-third who support Trump. That in itself isn’t surprising. But the gender breakdowns—and the issues motivating younger voters—tell a story that should have Republicans concerned. Nearly 60% of Gen Z women support Harris, who also draws a slight majority of support (42% vs 40%) among young men.
A CNBC/Generation Lab survey found similar numbers, with Harris leading Trump by 20 points among younger Americans. That’s a huge leap from July, when Harris led Trump by 13 points. Those young voters are also more issue savvy than prior polling would suggest, and they are ready to cast their ballots for pro-abortion candidates.
The NBC News poll found that young women now rank abortion as the second most important issue behind the economy and inflation. More importantly, about one-half (48%) of women now say they would never vote for a candidate who opposes reproductive freedom. That’s a strong indicator that voter anger over the Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision remains high, and historical data tells us that voters furious over losing reproductive freedom are more motivated than the average voter to cast a ballot either early or on Election Day. When their state also has an abortion measure on the ballot, those numbers leap even higher.
The Associated Press found similar levels of enthusiasm for reproductive freedom among women and young voters in North Carolina, a state the Trump campaign clearly fears it could lose. Trump spent much of the past week campaigning in North Carolina. Harris has also invested heavily in North Carolina, both in terms of advertising dollars and campaign stops in Raleigh and Greenville earlier this month.
Now Harris faces a bigger challenge: bringing out younger voters on Election Day. That has proven difficult in past election cycles, with Gen Z and millennial turnout lagging behind their older Gen X and Baby Boomer peers. But there are encouraging signs that the trend is shifting. 2022 marked Gen Z’s first midterm election, and America’s youngest voters made their electoral debut with higher turnout than past generations.
“Historical turnout data confirm that today’s young people are among the most electorally engaged in recent decades,” says the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. “31% of young people under age 30 voted in 2022. That’s the third-highest youth turnout in a midterm cycle in the past 50 years.”
Still, challenges remain. Roughly one-third (32%) of young voters told CNBC/Generation Lab pollsters that they “still were not sure where and how they would vote.” Another one-third said they would wait until Election Day to cast ballots. That makes Harris’ field operation an absolutely critical element of her swing-state strategy. If those young voters end up skipping Election Day, their absence could easily cost Harris her razor-thin advantages in Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
So, what is the state of the race? Unfortunately for Harris, the 2024 presidential contest is still defined by narrow margins and coin-flip swing states.
But unlike Trump, who has largely outsourced his voter engagement operation to bumbling billionaires like X CEO Elon Musk, Harris can take some comfort in the fact that her core message clearly resonates with her target voter groups. In a race likely to be decided by a few thousand votes spread across seven swing states, that could make all the difference.
