Voters across the globe are rejecting fascism. Trump should be worried

In early June, the far right made sweeping gains in the European Parliament elections, including in France. In a shock bid, French President Emmanuel Macron called an early snap election. His goal: to halt the narrative of the rise of the fascist right, one he didn’t want bedeviling him throughout his remaining three years in office. 

The gambit was considered madness. Polls suggested the hard-right National Rally party would win big. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen essentially ran a preelection victory lap, giving a substantial interview to CNN this past Thursday. In it, she vowed to heavily curtail aid to Ukraine. 

Yet, when the vote was counted, Macron’s goal of neutering Le Pen seems to have proved successful. The National Rally wound up in third place, behind the unified left and Macron’s centrist party. 

Believe it or not, this story is very relevant to our own November elections. 

Both here and abroad, the right has struggled to match its polling numbers for one main reason: Voters are terrified of fascism. 

In 2022, polling overstated Republican strength. In the Pennsylvania Senate race, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average showed Republican Mehmet Oz leading Democrat John Fetterman by 0.5 percentage points. He lost by almost 5 points. And in Wisconsin, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson had a little over a 3-point lead. He won by 1 point. 

Indeed, FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast showed Republicans slightly favored to win the Senate. They did not. Same thing in the House, where 270toWin’s consensus aggregate of seven forecasters predicted that Republicans would win 227 seats. They won 222 … in a midterm election where the party in the White House was expected to be wiped out. 

What was President Joe Biden’s closing message? Democracy. 

In late 2023, Poland shocked the world by ousting the right-wing Law and Justice party from its parliamentary majorities, dealing a major blow to the increasingly autocratic presidency of Andrzej Duda. 

Let’s move to early 2024, when Donald Trump underperformed his polling average in the Republican presidential primary by 9 points in early states. People were more happy to say they were voting for him than they were to actually turn out for him. 

In early June, the world was once again shocked as India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party was heavily wounded in parliamentary elections. In the run-up to the elections, the increasingly autocratic leader claimed his party would win at least 400 of the 543 seats in parliament. Instead, it took 240 seats, requiring Modi to enter into a coalition to govern. 

Last week, the U.K.’s Conservative Party got its ass handed to it by the Labour Party (although, to be fair, Labour underperformed the polling aggregate by about 6 points). Labour’s victory ended 14 years of conservative rule. 

And then, of course, there’s the left’s shock victory in France. Recent preelection surveys expected the far-right party to win between 170 to 250 legislative seats, according to Bloomberg. It won 142.

Lots of shocking results going on, it seems. The punditry and the elite class keep thinking fascist right-wingers will win key elections, and the voters largely continue to defy those expectations. Given the choice between freedom and creeping (or overt) fascism, the voters choose freedom. 

Does that mean that we will see the same dynamics here in the U.S. in November? 

Nothing is a done deal, and we have to work our asses off. But this election has less to do with President Joe Biden and more to do with Trump’s threat to democracy. I’m betting it will be the major issue driving voters to the polls. 

One last note, for dessert: 

Soon, it will be our turn to defeat the fascists. 

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