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New election schedule for Kentucky could boost turnout—and the GOP

Kentucky’s Republican-dominated state Senate has passed a constitutional amendment that would end the state’s practice of electing its governor and other statewide officers in odd-numbered years. If approved by the GOP-run state House and in a voter referendum this fall, the winners of the next elections in 2027 would serve special five-year terms; subsequent elections starting in 2032 would coincide with races for president, Congress, and the state legislature.

The Senate passed a similar proposal in both 2019 and again in 2020 only to see their House counterparts not take it up either time. However, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s reelection victory last fall could prompt Republicans to pass it this time, even though he’ll be term-limited in 2027. The Kentucky GOP has long dominated in federal elections, particularly since the state still has a straight-ticket voting option, so Republicans likely believe moving state races to presidential years would benefit them.

Nonetheless, it’s a rare example of Republicans trying to gain an advantage by expanding the electorate instead of trying to suppress Democratic voters. That’s because Kentucky’s turnout in recent presidential elections has often been close to double the turnout for gubernatorial races. In addition, presidential-year turnout nationwide is almost always more representative of eligible voters overall by including a larger proportion of young voters, voters of color, and lower-income voters than in non-presidential elections.

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January 2024
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