Politico unexpectedly reported on Friday that Rep. Abigail Spanberger has been telling fellow Democrats that, not only will she run to succeed Republican Glenn Youngkin as governor of Virginia in 2025, but that she also won’t seek reelection to her competitive House seat next year so she can prepare for a statewide bid. Multiple publications have relayed Spanberger’s interest in the governorship over the last several months, but there was no indication until now that she might retire from Congress.
Spanberger’s team did not confirm or deny Politico’s reporting, saying instead that she’s “squarely focused” on this November’s battle for control of Virginia’s state Senate and House of Delegates. The story adds that Spanberger, who would be the first woman to lead the Old Dominion, likely won’t reveal anything about her future plans until those contests take place. Spanberger would be free to seek a fourth term in the House in 2024 and even remain in Congress if she were to lose the governor’s race, but some Democrats argue she’d actually be helping her party by leaving in a presidential year.
The 7th Congressional District, which stretches from Northern Virginia’s Prince William County into more rural communities to the south, favored Joe Biden 53-46 in 2020, but Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe 52-47 here the following year. Republicans hoped that Youngkin’s win would set them up to end Spanberger’s career in 2022, but her 52-48 victory over Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega instead was an early sign on election night that the long-hyped red wave wasn’t going to wash up.
While Spanberger’s departure could make it tougher for Democrats to hold this constituency, some party members tell Politico that they’d rather defend an open seat during a presidential election, when they’re hoping for an electorate similar to the one that powered Biden to a 7-point win, than risk an unpredictable special election.
Even one House colleague agreed with that take. “If she asked me, and she hasn’t, I’d say don’t run in ‘24,” said Rep. Don Beyer, who represents the neighboring 8th District. Beyer argued that Spanberger would personally benefit by having to focus only on a single campaign for governor over the next two-and-a-half years rather than two back-to-back races but would also be helping her party. “That’s still a very competitive seat and as Democrats, we’re more likely to hold it with a new candidate in a presidential year,” Beyer said.
An open House seat would likely attract plenty of interest from Democrats in Prince William County, and Politico names state Sen. Jeremy McPike as well as former Dels. Jennifer Carroll Foy and Hala Ayala as possible candidates to replace Spanberger. All three competed in competitive primaries last month for the state Senate: McPike fended off Del. Elizabeth Guzmán 50.2-49.8―a margin of 50 votes―while Carroll Foy beat Ayala 63-37 for another safely blue seat. The only notable Republican currently running for the 7th District is self-funder Bill Moher, though others will likely take a look no matter what Spanberger does.
Spanberger would also likely be in for a contested nomination battle if she seeks to replace Youngkin in the one state where governors remain forbidden from seeking a second consecutive term. Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, who himself cannot run for a third term next year as leader of Virginia’s capital city, confirmed his interest to Jewish Insider in April, saying, “I’m going to seriously consider running for governor in 2025.” Stoney would be the Old Dominion’s second Black governor following Douglas Wilder, whose 1989 win made him the first African American elected to lead any state.
Del. Eileen Filler-Corn, who served as state House speaker for the two years that Democrats held the majority following the 2019 elections, also said earlier this year she’s thinking about a bid for governor. Filler-Corn, who would be both the first woman and Jewish person to hold the state’s top post, briefly served as minority leader after the GOP regained control of the chamber, but her caucus narrowly voted in April of 2022 to oust her. While no lawmakers ever publicly aired their grievances against her, multiple stories reported that their unhappiness was in part due to disappointment with the election that had just taken place. Filler-Corn later decided not to seek reelection to the legislature this year.
Republicans may also have a competitive nomination contest as they try to win their second consecutive gubernatorial race for the first time since 1997, when Jim Gilmore beat Beyer to succeed George Allen. Both Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears and Attorney General Jason Miyares were elected statewide along with Youngkin in 2021, and they’ve both been talked about as possible replacements. Sears would be the first Black woman to serve as governor, while Miyares would be Virginia’s first Latino chief executive.
