Ukraine Update: What’s this about a Russian civil war?

What we know so far:

Russia’s Ministry of Defense demanded, a week or two ago, that all private military contractors (mercenaries) register with the ministry and place themselves under official Russian control.

Wagner CEO Yevgeny Progozhin was like “nah,” and proceeded to spend all week releasing videos about how Russia was losing the war, taking repeated shots at his chief rival, Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. 

Today, Prigozhin released a video claiming that Russia’s entire rationale for going to war against Ukraine was bullshit. 

Right now, the MoD is trying to deceive society and the president and tell a story that there was insane aggression from the Ukrainian side and they were going to attack with the whole NATO bloc. 

The [special military operation] was started on 24 February for completely different reasons.

Not long after, Prigozhin claimed that Russian army forces had fired on his forces and killed a number of them. So in return, he declared war. 

The big question is how much of this is real, and how much is theater. 

Prigozhin claimed his forces are moving toward Rostov, on the Russian border. Russia is taking the threat seriously.

Location of Rostov, a key Russian logistical hub on the Azov Sea. 

While there’s tons of videos of Russian security forces setting up positions and roadblocks all around Rostov oblast and Moscow, we have seen zero video of the alleged Wagner column moving into Russia.

Lots of speculation that Prigozhin is out on a limb and has lost all oligarch and security services support. Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at Carnegie’s Russia operation, has an interesting post on Twitter: 

Here are a few insights into the situation surrounding Prigozhin:

For a long time, Prigozhin has been out of direct contact with Putin, yet he’s believed he was acting in Putin’s interests “by default”. His significant contributions in the war enhanced his sense of exclusivity and privilege.

The President’s administration maintained the stance that unless explicitly directed, it wasn’t feasible to openly confront Prigozhin, despite a strong inclination to do so. In fact, they had even convinced themselves of his usefulness.

As I’ve previously stated, the atrocities of war can drive people to the brink of sanity. Even the most loyal players, who are dependent on the Kremlin (which doesn’t imply complete manageability), can lose their sense of proportion. This is especially true when there appears to be no response to the continual attempts to escalate the situation.

Now that the state has actively engaged, there’s no turning back. The termination of Prigozhin and Wagner is imminent. The only possibility now is absolute obliteration, with the degree of resistance from the Wagner group being the only variable. Surovikin was dispatched to convince them to surrender. Confrontation seems totally futile

The impending end of Wagner has satisfied many in power. He had become excessively anti-state, which is intolerable during a war. However, a significant number of those outside of power now lament the loss of a character like Prigozhin, who had begun to appeal due to his daring and audacity. Consequently, political repercussions are expected.A crucial point to note is that many within the elite will now personally fault Putin for letting the situation escalate to such extremes and for his lack of a timely, adequate response when to many it was evident that Prigozhin was pushing the limits of Kremlin’s tolerance. Therefore, this entire saga is also an undercut to Putin’s standing.

We’ve seen Gen. Sergey Surovikin before—he’s the Russian general who was given overall command of the Russian war effort last fall, then proceeded to retreat from Kherson. That part worked in our favor, but he also did another thing that so far is vexing Ukraine—he started building the extensive network of fortifications that now scar the Ukrainian landscape in Russian-occupied territories. He also launched the destructive missile campaign against Ukrainian energy facilities throughout the winter. He’s a real asshole, but not enough of one to survive the job. He was demoted after Ukrainians didn’t freeze over the winter. 

As I googled our coverage of Surovikin, I came across this June 12 update entry: 

If that seems like Shoigu is trying to steal the only valuable thing from Prigozhin’s company, the Wagner CEO agrees. So on Monday, he engaged in his favorite game: red line crossing. That’s because his not-so-subtle response included the statement that “if Shoigu tries to take over Wagner PMC, Shoigu will die.”

However, Prigozhin says he will take orders. Just not from Shoigu. He will only take orders from Russian general Sergey Surovikin.

Well, Surovikin told Prigozhin to stand down and was ignored. So much for taking orders from him. 

There are few scenarios in which this is more than weekend drama. Remember Prigozhin whining daily about a lack of artillery and other ammunition from Russia’s ministry of defense during his assault on Bakhmut? Wagner has no ability to sustain itself, logistically, without tapping into the Russian war machine. It has now declared war on it, so where is Wagner going to get its fuel, ammunition, spare parts, food, water, and all the other things an army needs to move? 

Of course, I’m heading out on vacation in a few hours, and will be digitally detoxing, so the paragraph above might age poorly and I’ll be blissfully unaware. But it’s truly hard to see this as anything but a short-lived tantrum. Best-case scenario is that they spend a few days killing each other, expending ammunition that would’ve otherwise been directed at Ukrainians. 

This is mostly a win-win. Prigozhin is the worst, a war criminal with untold blood on his hands. HIs death will be celebrated by the civilized world. The big question mark is Africa: What happens to Wagner forces currently raping and pillaging their way through the continent in service of the worst repressive regimes? Unmoored by any structure, those Russian mercenaries might engage in even worse atrocities—they’ll want to get paid somehow. Or, they retreat and create a power vacuum that will lead to more death and violence in areas that have already suffered too much of it. 

There are certainly consequences to what’s happening. President Joe Biden is being briefed on developments. Don’t expect this to lead to the fracture of the Russian federation, but if nothing else, we’ll get to see the worst people staring each other down for the next few days, if not outright killing each other. 

Gary Kasparov has his take:

Don’t wonder what will happen if Russia collapses. It already did! Years ago. It’s not a state, it’s a mafia front with factions fighting each other for money, resources, and power.

Whatever is happening now, it was already clear Putin wasn’t able to control every faction or to keep the infighting quiet or at least non-violent the way he mostly could before.
The pointing fingers among Russian factions will increasingly be on triggers as Ukrainian victories multiply. The towers of lies will collapse and new, smaller ones built. Defeat will be denied, then blamed on rivals, then fake victory declared by the survivors.

Whoever keeps control, Putin or anyone else, will be faced with threats & instability. It is vital for the free world not to offer any lifelines to murderers. We do not expect democracy and liberty to suddenly flourish, but there can be no deals with Russian war criminals.

There will be attempts to use internal conflict as pretext for ceasefires, sanctions relief, and other charades to give Russia time to regroup and reload while occupying Ukrainian territory & continuing the terror. No.

Do not let whatever mafia show that is now out in the open in Russia distract from the goal of Ukrainian victory. It is time to accelerate, not hesitate. If you agree that “let them all lose” in Russia is ideal, the road to that is victory. Glory to Ukraine.

PS Please keep in mind that even more than usual, everything coming out of the Kremlin, and Russian generally, will be lies. It’s instinctive and about control. Such people would not admit they were drowning to a lifeguard.