A high-stakes special election for the New Hampshire state House that looked likely to take place less than two months from now won’t happen until mid-September, thanks to an unexpected development at Friday’s filing deadline.
Had only one candidate from each party entered the race for Rockingham County’s 1st District, a general election would have taken place on Aug 1. But because two Republicans entered the race, a primary will instead take place on that day, with a general on Sept. 19.
That primary will feature Jessica Sternberg, an official with the New Hampshire College Republicans who just graduated from the University of New Hampshire this spring, and Northwood Selectman Jim Guzofski, the lone official in his town to vote against holding a special election at all. Sternberg’s announcement a week ago was greeted with praise by a variety of GOP officials and operatives on Twitter, suggesting she’s the party favorite, though it’s possible they were unaware of Guzofski’s filing at the time, since he hasn’t so much as tweeted about his campaign.
The lone Democrat to join the contest, meanwhile, was former Nottingham Selectman Hal Rafter, who fell just 25 votes short in his campaign for the same district last year. He’ll now have the chance to raise money and knock doors with his eye toward winning in September while Sternberg and Guzofski will first have to fight it out for the GOP nomination.
Rockingham’s 1st District is a swingy multi-member district that elects three people to the state House, though only the seat formerly held by Republican Benjamin Bartlett is vacant, following his resignation in April. In 2022, the six candidates who ran here were all bunched very close together when final votes were tallied, with the top three—all Republicans—earning jobs in the legislature.
| Candidate | Party | %age | Vote | Shortfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Tudor | (R) | 17.3% | 2,424 | |
| Benjamin Bartlett | (R) | 17.0% | 2,373 | |
| Jacob Brouillard | (R) | 16.7% | 2,336 | |
| Keith McGuigan | (D) | 16.6% | 2,326 | -10 |
| Hal Rafter | (D) | 16.5% | 2,311 | -25 |
| William Tappan | (D) | 15.9% | 2,223 | -113 |
The “shortfall” column shows how many votes each Democrat lagged behind Brouillard, the Republican who took the third and final slot, indicating just how tight this race was. We can expect the special election to be closely contested in the same way.
The backdrop for the race shifted slightly in the last week, however, when freshman Democratic Rep. Shaun Filiault announced he’d become an independent. Filiault said he was upset with party leaders for objecting to a deal he’d struck with Republicans that tied together a bill banning the use of “gay panic” defenses in criminal proceedings with a constitutional amendment enshrining New Hampshire’s presidential primary as first in the nation.
As a result, Democrats now hold 197 seats in the 400-member chamber while Republicans hold 200. Another special in Grafton County’s safely blue 16th District is also likely this fall, so if Democrats prevail in both that race and flip the Rockingham seat, the GOP would still hold a 200-199 advantage, with Filiault the lone independent. Complicating matters further, Democratic state Rep. David Cote, a former minority leader, has not shown up at the capitol for three years, citing health issues, but has continued to win reelection.
So even if they win both upcoming specials, Democrats would need Filiault to return to the fold and Cote to return to work in order to create an exact 200-all tie in the House. But even that might not be enough to disrupt the GOP’s control of the chamber, since five Democrats voted to elect Republican Sherman Packard as speaker.
This week on “The Downballot,” we’re joined by guest host Joe Sudbay and law professor Quinn Yeargain for a deep dive into major political developments in three states. First up is Arizona, where a key GOP retirement on the Board of Supervisors in jumbo Maricopa County gives Democrats an excellent chance to win their first majority since the 1960s. Then it’s on to Arkansas, where citizens are working to overturn a Republican bill that purports to ban “critical race theory” in public schools by qualifying a referendum for the ballot. Finally, we hit Michigan, where Democrats just advanced a measure to have the state add its Electoral College votes to a multistate compact that would elect the president by the national popular vote.
