The Washington Post has a new poll of the battleground states. The overall gist is pretty positive news for Vice President Kamala Harris, but the newspaper doesn’t stop there. The article intersperses voter anecdotes throughout, and oh boy, it can be an obnoxious read.
Conducted with the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, The Washington Post’s poll shows Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump tied at 48% among registered voters, but among likely voters, she leads 49% to 48%. That’s close to what is reflected in polling averages, such as 538’s, which finds Harris leading by about 2 percentage points.
The good news is in the battleground states. While the poll finds Trump leading in Arizona (49-46) and North Carolina (50-47) among likely voters, Harris leads in Georgia (51-47), Michigan (49-47), Pennsylvania (49-47), and Wisconsin (50-47). Add it up and that’s a winning 286 electoral votes for Harris and no one cares what happens in Nevada, where the poll finds a 48-48 tie.
Yay, great. That’s all good and well, and will either reassure you in these times of high anxiety or lead you to find that one other poll that isn’t as optimistic. You do you. But regardless of how we receive this kind of news, we can all probably agree on how frustrating it is that we have to spend all this time and energy on a few hundred thousand undecided and reluctant voters in this handful of swing states. This story gives us a painful reminder that they exist—and that they figuratively hold our democracy in their hands.
“Steven Grissom, a 54-year old White stagehand in Las Vegas said, ‘I sure as hell don’t like my choice,’ but that he was going to vote for Trump,” the Post reported. “‘I could leave it blank,’ he said, ‘I don’t want my lack of vote to give [the election] to Kamala.’”
In 2020, white men age 45-64 in Nevada voted for Trump 63-36, so this guy falls in line with expectations. We don’t know why this white dude thinks Harris is so much scarier than Trump, but we can pretty much guess.
“Kobe Sifflet, a 21-year-old Black deli clerk in Atlanta, said he was still undecided and wanted to hear more about Harris’s plans,” reported the story. “Trump ‘seems a bit extreme,’ to him.”
Oh boy. Not to be glib, but there isn’t a single 21-year-old man in the country who is undecided on a political candidate because they want to “hear more about [candidate’s] plans.” The internet exists. Heck, TikTok is replete with information on the candidates. Yet, as I wrote about on Sunday, young men are moving rightward at alarming rates. And while Black men are more likely to vote Democratic, a very real and persistent gender gap exists within all demographics.
In Georgia in 2020, Black women voted for President Joe Biden 92-7, while it was 83-16 for Black men—a 9-point gender gap in support for Biden. This guy isn’t a guaranteed Harris vote. A robust GOTV effort will be necessary to turn him out, along with other young men (of all races), to vote for Harris.
“Malik Williams, 27, a Black voter in Stone Mountain, Ga., who manages a tattoo parlor, said he would probably vote for Harris,” read another anecdote in the story. “I think Trump’s trying to push a more police state in terms of creating unnecessary conflict with citizens, versus actually trying to make the country better.”
The danger with this quote is the “probably.” It seems very obvious he’s a natural Harris voter, as his distrust for Trump is clear and real. Yet “probable” doesn’t mean “I’ll walk over broken glass to cast my vote.” Again, GOTV will be critical to make sure he votes, because he’s not feeling particularly motivated to do so.
“Kacey Campbell, a 30-year-old school administrator from Milwaukee who is White, said she is leaning more toward Harris, but calls it ‘just a slight lean,’” continued the story. “She watched both debates to try to lock in a decision but is disappointed in how both candidates have addressed the Israel-Gaza war. She said the ‘scale of destruction’ in Gaza affects her confidence in voting for the Democratic Party. She criticized Democrats for saying ‘we’re not Donald Trump, we’re not Project 2025,’ rather than running on their own policies.”
It’s funny how people see what they want to see. Trump is literally talking about pushing out Palestinians from Gaza to turn it into a seaside resort town for the wealthy, and claims that Biden has unfairly held back Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu. No serious person doubts the dramatic difference a Harris or Trump presidency would have on residents of Gaza.
Additionally, Harris and Democrats are of course running on their own policies. It’s all there for those who actually care to learn the details. But when people say “They’re not running on policy,” that often means, “They’re not saying exactly what I want them to say.” Most people look at the totality of what both candidates are offering and make a decision based on that analysis, and others talk about “just a slight lean” because they’re actually single-issue voters. Yet Kacey’s vote is absolutely critical, and the campaigns will spend untold energy to either get it—or suppress it.
“Emily Dembs, a 33-year-old White voter from St. Clair Shores, Mich., said they are torn about whom to vote for,” starts another anecdote.“‘I really don’t like Trump at all. I think he’s a lying scumbag.’ But the Democratic Party to them, ‘has felt so phony.’ If they do vote, they will vote for Harris. ‘Voting for Harris is probably a good idea, I just wish we had more options or different people.’”
The Democratic Party’s brand is absolute shit, no doubt about that. Trying to overcome that brand is a big part of the GOTV operation. Still, this idea that “I wish we had more options” is utter horseshit. We already played that game.
“Oh no, Biden is too old, I wish we had other options!” Well, Emily got another option. Perhaps the problem isn’t “more options.”
And yet … we need her vote, and the vote of every other Democrat-leaning voter in a battleground state who feels this way. It’s easy to get angry and exasperated about just how insipid these arguments can be, but they’re real. And for whatever reason they might cling to those arguments, we still have to work hard to get their votes.
Ooh, this is a fun one: “‘I take it as a pretty big responsibility,’ said Richard Schall, a 31-year-old White postal worker and U.S. Army veteran from Latrobe, Pa., who plans to vote on Election Day. Despite his concerns about Trump frequently being disrespectful, he ‘leans more toward Donald Trump on the basis that I’ve seen him as president and the uncertainty of Harris … I don’t think the way Trump handled things was so inherently bad that it was dangerous.’”
President Trump told people to inject bleach to combat COVID, but sure, he wasn’t so inherently bad, was he?
Interestingly, the poll finds that 21% of likely voters are still “uncommitted”—that is, they are either undecided, or are leaning one way but could change their mind. Of those, the majority are younger (43% of registered 18- to 25-year-olds) and nonwhite (34% of registered voters of color compared with 23% of registered white voters). In the poll, Black registered voters break for Harris 82-12 across the battleground states, and registered Latinos favor Harris 56-34. While many of those uncommitted won’t vote in the end (by definition, they aren’t enthusiastic about the choices), Harris should pick up a disproportionate share of the ones who do.
As for younger voters, there is a huge gender gap: Harris is winning women under the age of 30 by 20 points and losing young men by 15 points, once again tracking with what I wrote Sunday. Of these younger voters who do turn out, Harris will also benefit disproportionately, as young men have abysmal voting rates.
In other words, Harris still has room to grow on the edges, while Trump’s growth possibilities are low to nonexistent.
I do want to caution that as maddening as these voter anecdotes are, this isn’t an invitation to mock and belittle. Everyone has their own experiences and areas of interest, and it doesn’t serve us to diminish them. We can vent among ourselves about the challenges we face in educating our natural allies, but then we need to go out and talk to these people with curiosity, compassion, and understanding.
If we don’t win them this year, you may plant a seed for the future. Even a mere two weeks before the election, the long game still matters.
