A newly published survey by the nonpartisan World Justice Project reveals that election denialism and violent feelings among Americans are more widespread than initially thought.
Forty-six percent of Republicans and 27% of Democrats said they would refuse to accept any election result unless their candidate wins. That’s disconcerting, but it’s easy to write off that finding as pre-election frustration—the same way thousands of people swear they’ll move to Canada if their candidate loses.
But dig into those numbers and there are some terrifying numbers to be crunched.
Of the 1,046 Americans polled, 14% of Republicans and 11% of Democrats said they would be comfortable taking “action” to overturn an election result they didn’t like. Combined, this represents a significant share of Americans who could, at least in theory, rationalize away violent actions like the insurrection we saw on Jan. 6, 2021—as long as they were the ones doing the rioting.
“You can see quite low levels of trust in the process, particularly among Republicans, but also, in some areas, among Democrats,” Elizabeth Andersen, director of the World Justice Project, told USA Today. “It’s not zero by any stretch of the imagination.”
Though its findings were just released, the survey was conducted from June 10 to 18. That means it was fielded well before President Joe Biden’s departure from the presidential race, Kamala Harris’ emergence as the first major-party Black female nominee for president, and two assassination attempts against Donald Trump. It also predates a wave of anti-immigrant panic, stoked by right-wing politicians and media, that has resulted in numerous bomb threats against schools, government offices, and supermarkets in Springfield, Ohio.
In other words, it’s easy to imagine the survey’s numbers looking even worse today.
Yet, unlike flustered Democrats, the Republican Party has taken unmistakable steps in recent years to not only excuse election-related violence and partisan intimidation but encourage it. The Washington Post found multiple examples of Trump excusing and encouraging violence against his opponents since 2015. Trump’s recent hoax about Haitian immigrants eating cats led to so many threats against Ohio’s Haitian population that Republican Gov. Mike DeWine condemned Trump in a New York Times op-ed.
“This rhetoric hurts the city and its people, and it hurts those who have spent their lives there,” he wrote.
None of this chaos is lost on weary Americans. A new poll from Quinnipiac University published on Tuesday found that 7 in 10 likely voters expressed serious concern about the possibility of election-related violence—and that includes 59% of Republican voters. Instead of enthusiasm, most voters seem to now feel a mix of anxiety and dread. That could play a major role in suppressing Election Day turnout, as skittish voters choose to stay safe at home instead of risking a possible conflict at their polling place.
But all is not lost. There are ways to minimize the dangers and calm voters’ concerns, this cycle and beyond.
Local law enforcement can proactively address and debunk the most extreme right-wing conspiracies. The events in Springfield have shown us that, pushed to their limit, local police officials, elected leaders, and even a Republican governor can push back on Trump’s dangerous lies. Local law enforcement is the first line of defense when it comes to protecting the lives of election workers, who are often just volunteers eager to support their community.
Republicans will reject every opportunity to police the extremists in their ranks. Many of the lawmakers who helped motivate the Jan. 6 rioters have thrived in a culture of right-wing lawlessness. It will be up to the American people to demand their safety from the dwindling number of elected officials who still care about our democracy. The clock is ticking.
