Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in a new Civiqs poll for Daily Kos, 49% to 45%, with an increasing number of voters expressing confidence that Harris can defeat Trump compared to President Joe Biden. Harris has consolidated support among traditional Democratic voters, while Trump is just as troubling as ever and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, remains a drag on the GOP ticket.
Despite these changing trends, more voters still believe that Trump will win.
In June’s survey, Biden and Trump were locked in at 45% each. The 4-point gain for Harris this month signals an almost palpable sense of relief among voters.
Biden gets high approval for ending his bid: 55% of respondents say they are “glad that Biden left the race,” including 59% of independents, as well as 67% of young voters, 50% of Black voters, and 59% of Hispanic voters.
The flip side of the question is whether Harris has a better chance than Biden to beat Trump, and 76% of Democrats say she does, along with 46% of independents. Again, Black (60%), Hispanic (58%), and young (62%) voters lead in saying Harris can get the job done.
The bump Harris gained compared to Biden comes from all these groups as well as women. Last month, Biden was polling at 52% with women; Harris is now at 58%. She gains 9 points over Biden with young voters (55% to 46%), and 11 points among both Black voters (86% to 75%) and Hispanic voters (57% versus 46%).
Harris has a slight edge in favorability: 43% of respondents have a favorable opinion of the vice president, compared to Trump’s 42%. They’re both miles ahead of Trump’s running mate Vance, who 51% of voters already don’t like. That’s a very high disapproval rating for a first-term senator that few people might have heard of before he got the nod from Trump. Even among Republicans, only 67% think Vance was a good choice. Voters are poised to hate him.
Trump is still seen as a threat to democracy, with 39% of voters saying their primary concern about him is his “impact on America’s democracy,” dwarfing all other issues. The next most concerning issue for them is abortion and social policies, which 8% of respondents say is their biggest concern.
When it comes to who they believe will ultimately win the election, though, 45% of respondents think Trump will claim victory, while 42% think Harris will win. In June’s poll, just 37% thought Biden would win, showing definite momentum for Harris.
She is closing the gap and voters think she has a better chance than Biden did, but Democrats still have work to do.
Kamala Harris has the momentum and the enthusiasm. Let’s keep it going and help her close that gap!
