When a poll came out late last month that had Hallie Shoffner within the margin of error against loathsome scumbag Senator Tom Cotton (Cotton 46 – Shoffner 43), most of us just dismissed it as the sort of silliness one sees from both Republican and Democratic pollsters. This week, another poll just dropped, this one from Hendrix College in Arkansas, that has Shoffner up 47-44. A third poll, this one from a Republican pollster, unsurprisingly gives the nod to Cotton, 51-35. What caught my eye, though, was the comment by James Johnson at the end:
“There’s no doubt that Democrats are doing better in Arkansas than in 2024 or 2020. But unlike some of the commentary floating around, this poll shows it is still a red state that Republicans have on lock, with a double-digit lead. Arkansas is not in play in the Senate this year.”
That is not pollster talk, just propaganda.
So what is going on in Arkansas, if anything? It’s difficult to tell, given these conflicting narratives. What is certain is that it’s not nothing, as this Republican pollster above states. Common sense would tell us that much. But it could also be much lower than the other polls suggest.
Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights claims that in a study of 3,312 Senate polls, the Democratic candidate’s margin was overstated in each of the last four election cycles by an average of 3.7 points. He also claimed that summer polling can substantially overstate Democratic strength.
We’ll soon see whether he’s right in this case. A race that most of us would have ignored completely has suddenly become interesting.
Source: Newsweek
In Arkansas, a Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll found Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner leading Republican Senator Tom Cotton by 47.4 percent to 44 percent. Libertarian Jeff Wadlin received 3 percent, while 5.6 percent were undecided.
Shoffner’s 3.4-point advantage falls within the poll’s 4.7-point margin of error, however. The survey of 1,217 likely voters was conducted by text message from August 11 to 12.
Cotton, a two-term senator who was first elected in 2014, received support from 82 percent of Republicans. But Shoffner led him 59 percent to 29 percent among independents, according to the poll. She also held advantages among women, younger voters and college graduates.
The result is particularly striking because Trump carried Arkansas by 30.6 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, winning 64.2 percent of the vote to then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ 33.6 percent. It was the largest Republican presidential margin in Arkansas since Richard Nixon’s landslide victory in 1972.
Here she is with Stephanie Miller a few days ago.
I’m living rent free in Tom Cotton’s head. https://t.co/y6nZRk61Gy
— Hallie Shoffner (@hallieshoffner) August 17, 2026
Hendrix College poll | 8/11-8/12 LV
US Senate Arkansas 2026
🟦Hallie Shoffner 47%
🟥Tom Cotton 44% (incumbent)
🟨Jeff Wadlin 3%https://t.co/tLp3uT13MZ— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) August 19, 2026
