Less than four months out from the midterms, there are enough canaries flying around Republicans’ proverbial coal mine that it must look like Alfred Hitchcock’s “The Birds” down there.
The latest sign of impending doom for the GOP comes in the form of a new poll in Nevada’s 2nd District.
Released Tuesday, the survey from Wedgewood Polls finds Democratic nominee Teresa Benitez-Thompson leading Republican David Flippo, 48% to 46%, in the rural district that encompasses the northern half of the Silver State.
Why is that so bad for Republicans? Because President Donald Trump won Nevada’s 2nd District by a whopping 14 percentage points in 2024, according to data from The Downballot.
The district is not even on the list of competitive seats in the major political handicapping outlets. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race as “safe” for Republicans.
If Democrats are ahead in a seat like this, then Republicans are in for a brutal election night.
Of course, we mused earlier this year that this seat could be one to watch this fall.
The seat is open after Republican Rep. Mark Amodei announced in February that he was not running for reelection. As I wrote at the time, “[I]n wave-election years, a seat like this can lead to surprising outcomes—especially when it’s an open seat, with no incumbent advantage.”
In June, Amodei himself said he worried the seat could flip if the district nominated Trump’s pick: retired Lt. Col. David Flippo.
“With all due respect Mr. President, Nevada already has five representatives who live in Clark County. Your endorsement[,] if followed, would make it six out of six,” Amodei said, insinuating that Flippo’s carpetbagging from Las Vegas would not be received well in the rural part of the state.
So what did Nevada Republicans do after Amodei issued his warning? They chose Flippo, of course.
And that left Amodei saying aloud that he thinks the seat could flip this fall.
“It will be an interesting summer and fall, but I believe it’s fair to say that CD-2, for the first time in its history, isn’t a Republican guarantee,” Amodei wrote in a post on X in June. “What was once a safe prediction may quickly become an expensive one.”
As for the Democratic nominee, Benitez-Thompson is the former majority leader in the Nevada Assembly. She has the kind of moderate chops that could help her win a heavily Republican seat like this.
Of course, this is just one poll. But it’s hinting at a real issue for Republicans. And if we see national Republican groups start to book television ad time in Reno—the anchor city in this district—then you know they, too, are worried the seat could flip.
Ultimately, if Republicans have to defend seats like this one this fall, Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.
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