If the last two weeks of special elections are any indication, Republicans are in for a world of hurt this year.
Start with the Texas 9th state Senate District. On Jan. 31, Democrats flipped a district that President Donald Trump won by 17 percentage points in 2024. In fact, the Democrat won by 14 points. That’s a massive 31-point swing.
Republicans tried to cope by arguing that special elections have funky turnout patterns, which is true. But in this blood-red district, only about a third of the electorate was Democratic. The splits were staggering. Republicans made up 51% of voters, while Democrats were just 35%. Yet the results were 57% for the Democrat and 43% for the Republican.
In other words, the Democratic candidate ran 22 points ahead of partisan turnout. That kind of overperformance is almost unheard of in our politically polarized era. Not even in 2018, the midterm elections during Trump’s first term, did we regularly see numbers like that.
It’s even more striking given the spending gap. Those backing the Republican candidate outspent those backing the Democrat 10 to 1—$2.4 million to $242,000. If this is what Democrats can do while being buried in pro-GOP money, Trump’s war chest suddenly looks a lot less intimidating.
Maybe Republicans hoped it was a fluke. A local dynamic. A one-off. If so, they were wrong.
Texas delivered a 31-point swing? Louisiana said, “Hold my beer,” and produced a 37-point swing.
On Feb. 7, Democrats won a special election in Louisiana’s 60th state House District, holding a seat Trump carried by 13 points in 2024 and prevailing 62% to 38%.
To be fair, this district has long had a bit of a Dixiecrat hangover, with Democrats winning local races while Republicans dominated federally. But that kind of ticket-splitting has been fading for years, especially under Trump. Republicans thought this seat was ripe for a flip. They didn’t get it.
“Democrats have now flipped 26 seats since Trump’s election across red and battleground territory, and Republicans have flipped zero,” the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee said in a press release.
Still, Republicans can take comfort in Oklahoma, right?
Oklahoma’s 35th state House District is dark red. In 2024, Trump won 79% of it to Democrat Kamala Harris’ 21%—a 58-point landslide. Surely, that one was safe.
It may have stayed Republican this past Tuesday. But the margin told the real story.
The GOP held it by just 64% to 36%. That’s a 29-point swing toward Democrats in one of the most hostile environments imaginable.
If Democrats are cutting roughly 30 points into Republican margins in ruby-red districts in the reddest of states, it means the battlefield is expanding. Dramatically.
Few Republicans are going to feel safe heading into November if these numbers hold.
