With roughly two months before Florida lawmakers convene for the 2026 session, Gov. Ron DeSantis is making it clear that he expects a new congressional map to emerge from the legislature.
“Stay tuned,” DeSantis posted to social media Thursday night, responding to a post summarizing House Speaker Daniel Perez’s claim that redistricting is “not planned.”
Perez, speaking to Politico earlier this week, insisted that there was “no plan yet” to redraw the state’s congressional lines.
“We’re not there yet. We haven’t had that discussion yet,” Perez told the outlet. “Redistricting hasn’t been a conversation that we’ve had yet.”
Despite those assurances, DeSantis has repeatedly signaled he expects Florida to redraw its lines in a way that benefits Republicans, further cementing GOP control of the state’s congressional delegation. Republicans currently hold a 20-8 advantage in the U.S. House.
How many seats Florida might gain remains unclear. Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power has suggested the state could pick up as many as five additional seats, while DeSantis has claimed, without evidence, that Florida was “gypped” out of an extra congressional seat due to an unfavorable census under the Biden administration.
DeSantis also weighed in overnight on the federal Department of Justice’s objections to California’s redistricting process, which favors Democrats. The DOJ alleges that race is a primary consideration in the California map.
“Courts could nix the CA map on racial gerrymandering grounds, but I bet CA will just say the intent was to partisan gerrymander,” DeSantis posted.
The irony is obvious. DeSantis is signaling a partisan gerrymander in Florida while criticizing California for doing much the same. The roots of the strategy trace back to Texas, where Republicans, encouraged by Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott, redrew congressional maps over the summer to net the party five additional House seats.
California voters responded by approving Proposition 50, a ballot measure giving state lawmakers the authority to redraw maps in a bid to counteract the GOP’s advantage.
Florida is not Texas, however, and redistricting carries real political risks. Recent Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia exposed sizable swings among Hispanic voters, a key constituency for Florida’s GOP in recent election cycles, suggesting that the party cannot take Republican dominance for granted.
Indeed, Democratic wins in those governors’ races illustrated a broader pattern of voters reassessing Republican leadership ahead of the 2026 midterms. Republican turnout has flagged in recent elections, and key GOP blocs, particularly Hispanic voters, are showing signs of dissatisfaction.
Miami Rep. Maria Salazar, a Republican, voiced her concerns immediately after Election Day.
“The Hispanic vote is not guaranteed,” she said. “Hispanics married President Trump, but they are only dating the GOP.”
If Florida Republicans redraw the map, they would join other GOP-controlled states undertaking similar efforts to protect congressional seats, including Missouri and North Carolina. Last month, North Carolina Republicans shifted a U.S. House seat from Democratic to Republican control, while other states moved to consolidate GOP power.
Democrats, meanwhile, are pushing back. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore announced earlier this month that his office will launch an advisory commission to redraw congressional maps in a way that better reflects voter preferences. Virginia has approved a constitutional amendment giving the governor authority to redraw districts, likely to take effect after Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s gubernatorial win.
For DeSantis, aggressive map-drawing could backfire. With voter sentiment shifting and Democrats consolidating gains in other states, partisan redistricting in Florida is no longer a guaranteed path to expanded GOP control.
