Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
Americans don’t back Trump the Imperialist
President Donald Trump wants to buy—or take by force—Greenland, Canada, the Gaza Strip, and the Panama Canal. “We will own it,” Trump said of Gaza, including all the trademark policy details he is known for (none).
But Americans aren’t here for it.
A new poll from Data for Progress finds that likely voters largely oppose the U.S. taking ownership of each location. Voters are close to split on the Panama Canal (41% support, 46% oppose), which the U.S. turned over to the Panamanians at the end of 1999. But when it comes to the other locations, it’s not even close: Majorities oppose the U.S. taking Greenland, Canada, and most starkly, Gaza. Only 23% want the U.S. to control Gaza, while 62% oppose that idea.
And despite Trump’s flirtation with deploying U.S. troops to take Gaza, even a majority of Republican-likely voters (52%) oppose his idea.
Of course, Trump’s territorial expansionism doesn’t end there. On the first day of his new term, he signed an executive order to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America” (and another order to make Feb. 9 “Gulf of America Day,” because everything must be this stupid).
A new poll from Marquette University Law School—one of the best in the polling game—finds that just 29% support Trump’s “Gulf of America” rebrand, while a staggering 71% oppose it. While 57% of Republicans support it (because of course they do), only 16% of independents and 4% of Democrats do.
With numbers like that, Trump really should’ve just gone with his first plan: to rename it the Gulf of Trump and dye the water gold.
Billionaires, billionaires, billionaires—you and me are through
Billionaire Elon Musk delivered his first Oval Office address this past Tuesday, despite, you know, not being president. And there’s a strong chance that the Tesla guy is delusional about his appeal to the American public—because billionaires, well … Americans aren’t so hot on them.
Seventy-three percent of likely voters think billionaires have too much influence over the federal government, according to a new poll from Data for Progress. That includes majorities of Democrats (80%), independents or third-party voters (80%), and Republicans (63%).
When it comes to Musk himself, not only do strong majorities of Democrats (79%) and independents and third-party voters (65%) believe he has too much influence, even 1 in 3 Republicans thinks so.
And that tracks with public opinion about billionaires generally. New polling from YouGov finds that 55% of Americans think the government should try to close the wealth gap between the richest and poorest Americans, while just 22% think the government shouldn’t try to.
Even wilder, 49% of Americans think the government should “try to reduce the share of wealth” held by American billionaires. This phrasing is more radically progressive since it focuses on taking money away from the ultrarich and, unlike the previous question, does not mention poorer Americans at all. And yet even 1 in 3 Republicans still supports this type of governmental action. Only 27% of Americans oppose it.
To be fair, a lot of respondents surely assume this type of wealth reduction would be used to benefit those with less money. (I.e., if the ultrarich’s share of wealth lowers, then the less-rich sees their share of it rise.)
But it’s also possible that Americans just don’t like billionaires. Take heed, Musk.
Five years of COVID-19
COVID-19 has claimed more than 1.2 million Americans’ lives since Jan. 1, 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And while the pandemic has largely faded as a health threat, its damage to American families continues to this day, according to a significant new study by the Pew Research Center that reflects on five years of COVID-19.
About 1 in 4 Americans say the pandemic took a major toll on them, and nearly 1 in 2 said it took a minor toll. Compared with the public at large, Americans under the age of 50 are significantly more likely to say it took a major toll on them, as are Hispanic Americans.
While 44% of Americans say they have mostly recovered from the toll the pandemic took on them, 1 in 4 have only somewhat recovered, and 6% have not recovered at all.
The pandemic indisputably furthered the partisan divide, from Republicans’ rage at basic health precautions like masking and vaccination to Democrats’ fury at Trump’s refusal to take the pandemic seriously. And Pew’s data reflects that divide growing across 2020. For instance, in March 2020, similar shares of Democrats (74%) and Republicans (84%) said that the CDC was doing an excellent or good job at managing the crisis. However, by January 2022, just 26% of Republicans had the same opinion, while Democrats’ view largely hadn’t changed (69%).
So it makes sense that 72% of Americans agree the pandemic drove the country further apart, according to Pew’s latest data.
However, more than 1 in 10 Americans think the pandemic mostly brought the country together (yes, really), and another 16% say it didn’t affect things either way. But it’s possible that these folks—a combined 27%—are many of the same ones who say the pandemic took no toll on them whatsoever (25%).
Any updates?
-
Trump and co. are testing the waters of a constitutional crisis, suggesting they may disobey court orders in their pursuit of smothering the federal government—but they might face a big public backlash for it. Fifty-seven percent of Americans think a judge’s order trumps a president’s, with only 21% thinking the opposite, according to a new YouGov poll. (And yes, that 21% is largely made up of Republicans, who’d surely have a different opinion if a Democrat were scribbling out orders in the White House.)
-
Eggs! You know ’em, you love ’em, you can’t afford ’em—and Trump doesn’t care, as Daily Kos has covered thoroughly. And those skyrocketing prices aren’t escaping Americans, 61% of whom have noticed egg prices increasing “a lot,” according to a new YouGov poll. Another 20% have noticed “a little” price increase.
-
Since Democrat Kamala Harris lost last year’s presidential election, many have wondered if she’ll run for office again, possibly in California’s 2026 governor’s race. A new Emerson College poll for The Hill and Inside California Politics has good news for her: 57% of California Democrats say they’d support her if she ran for governor. Her closest competitor? Former Rep. Katie Porter, a whiteboard aficionado who sits at 9%.
Vibe check
Though it’s been five years since COVID-19 hit the public consciousness, it’s just now been three years since Americans stopped worrying so much about it. Jan. 17, 2022, was the last time more registered voters were concerned about a local COVID-19 outbreak than weren’t, according to data from Civiqs.
Curiously, though, the net level of concern has recently ticked up from its nadir of -71 percentage points in May 2024. It’s now -55 points. Perhaps fears around bird flu have got folks worried about outbreaks more generally. It could also be a cyclical thing since concern also rose last winter.
