Democrats are fighting to hold on to their 51-49 majority in the Senate—and the latest polling shows they’re the underdogs in this election. But there is hope.
Republicans lead Democrats in enough Senate races to flip the chamber, according to 538’s polling averages as of Sept. 27 at 12 PM ET. Democrats’ slim majority is under threat for two main reasons.
First, Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin is retiring, and his West Virginia seat will undoubtedly flip. And second, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester of Montana trails his Republican opponent.
But these are polls, not election results, and because of that, they can be changed by donating, mobilizing, and voting for Democratic candidates.
There is just over a month until Nov. 5. Here are the races that need your help.
Democrats are defending swingy seats in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, some held by incumbents and some not. (Though Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema became an independent in 2022, she still caucuses with Democrats.) Given that the GOP will undoubtedly win West Virginia’s race, this means that if just one swing seat flips to Republicans, it would stick Democrats in the minority.
In other words, even if Kamala Harris were elected president, she would face a huge roadblock in passing her agenda.
Tester, who was first elected in 2006, faces the steepest odds. He is the only Democratic incumbent who trails a Republican challenger in 538’s polling averages. However, Republican challenger Tim Sheehy’s lead—3.7 percentage points—is within the margin of error. That’s largely because there have been so few polls of this race, with only six since the start of August.
Compare that with Pennsylvania, the most polled Senate race, which has seen 35 polls in the same time period. That’s no doubt due to Pennsylvania’s status as a presidential swing state, whereas Montana very much is not; Donald Trump won it by 16 points in 2020.
Sheehy is a piece of work too. Not only does this trust-fund cowboy want to unseat a real farmer, he also traffics in racist stereotypes of Native Americans, appears to have fabricated a war story, reportedly plagiarized his memoir, and has allegedly defrauded some of his own employees.
Sheehy is a stark contrast with Tester, a devoted lawmaker who has the good humor to sell an incredible two-fingered foam finger on his campaign merch store, recalling a childhood accident with a meat grinder.
Over in Ohio, Sherrod Brown, who was also first elected senator in 2006, leads Republican challenger Bernie Moreno by 2.4 points. Similar to Montana’s race, though, Brown’s lead is within the margin of error, meaning that if Moreno were to win, it would be within the range of expected results.
Outside groups backing Moreno are outspending pro-Brown groups more than 2 to 1, according to OpenSecrets, a nonprofit that tracks campaign finance. A lot of that comes from the climate-destroying cryptocurrency industry, which has thrown over $38 million into pro-Moreno ads.
Other Democratic senators and Senate hopefuls have better odds, though their races are anything but a sure bet. And Democrats will need to hold as many seats as possible because their best pickup opportunities will be rough going.
In Texas, Democrat Colin Allred, a current member of the House and former pro football player, trails Republican incumbent and state crisis deserter Ted Cruz by 3.5 points. A recent Morning Consult poll showed Allred leading by 1 point. So far, though the poll has been an outlier. Still, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has recently invested heavily in the race.
The DSCC has also thrown big money into Florida’s Senate race, where former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell trails Republican incumbent and alleged Medicare fraudster Rick Scott by 4.5 points. So far, no poll has shown her in the lead, though a recent Emerson College poll for The Hill—a highly rated pollster—showed her just 1 point behind. But again, that appears to be an outlier.
Notably, the Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent fundraising super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, has thus far refused to help Scott or Cruz, two frequent critics of McConnell. Time will tell if that costs the caucus.
Democrats do have another chance to protect their majority, though it comes with a big asterisk. Dan Osborn, a union leader in Omaha, Nebraska, is challenging Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. The race is tight, with 538’s average showing Fischer up only 3.3 points. Senate Republicans certainly see Osborn as a threat, recently placing an ad buy to boost Fischer.
The catch? Osborn is running as a nonpartisan, not as a member of the Democratic Party, which didn’t field a candidate in this election. And while he has publicly spurned Democrats and refused to say which party he would caucus with if elected, there are many behind-closed-doors connections between his campaign and the Democratic Party, suggesting that, if elected, he just might help them save their majority.
