Ever since Donald Trump amassed 91 criminal counts (now 88) in four separate indictments, many legal and political analysts have dismissed the New York hush-money case, with its 34 counts, as the least consequential of Trump’s potentially illegal conquests.
Exit polls may have found that more than a quarter of voters in the Republican presidential primaries say Trump would be unfit for office if convicted of a crime, but what’s a little “catch and kill” election interference when the guy shook down Georgia election officials to “find” him votes, launched a homegrown terrorist attack on the U.S. Capitol, and stored state secrets in plain sight at Mar-a-Lago?
If trivializing the political impact of a conviction sounds a little crazy, maybe that’s because it is. In fact, a new Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll suggests that Trump being convicted in the Manhattan district attorney’s hush-money case—which is likely to be tried first—could definitely impact the 2024 election outcome.
The poll found that half of Americans believe Trump is guilty of falsifying business records in the case brought by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg. In that regard, the hush-money case doesn’t differ all that much from the three other criminal cases: 49% say Trump’s guilty in the Justice Department’s election interference case, 52% say he’s guilty in the classified documents case, and 49% say he’s guilty of the the charges in the racketeering case in Georgia. So it’s basically a wash, with roughly half of Americans believing Trump is guilty of whatever charges have been brought against him.
The poll also found that 44% of Americans say a Trump conviction in the Manhattan DA case would have no impact on their likelihood to support him for president. Yet 32% said it would make them less likely to support Trump, including 36% of independents and even 9% of Republicans. That’s not nothing—particularly in a closely divided electorate.
It’s true that many voters still view the Justice Department’s election interference case, which centers on the violent Jan. 6 attack, as the crown jewel of potential Trump convictions. Indeed, the survey found 59% of Americans believe Trump should be tried in the case before Election Day.
Relatedly, 70% of Americans believe presidents shouldn’t be immune to criminal prosecution for actions done while in office—a position Trump continues to push both legally and politically. In fact, several recent swing-state focus groups found voters were aghast to learn of Trump’s immunity claims.
Taken together, the poll’s findings are the makings of a powerful case for accountability that the President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign can exploit. That is particularly true if Trump is ultimately convicted in the hush-money case but manages to delay justice in the Jan. 6 election interference case until after the election.
A conviction in the hush-money case would confirm what roughly half of Americans have believed all along: Trump is a criminal. And for the nearly 6 in 10 Americans who want Trump held to account for Jan. 6 before Election Day, the phrase “justice delayed is justice denied” will take on a whole new meaning.
The president of the Center for American Progress, Patrick Gaspard, joins us to give his thoughts on what the Republican Party’s actual message is.
