Iowans who planned to caucus for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley Monday night didn’t seem particularly enthused by her—and yet her solid third-place finish could be good news for Joe Biden.
While nearly half (49%) of Donald Trump supporters called themselves “extremely enthusiastic” about their candidate in the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, just 23% of those supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said the same and a paltry 9% of Haley supporters identified as being extremely enthusiastic to vote for her.
But while Haley supporters weren’t super excited about her, they still ended up accounting for some 19% of Monday night’s caucusgoers, while 21% turned out for DeSantis and 51% backed Trump.
Haley’s third-place finish in Iowa—just 2 points shy of DeSantis—wasn’t overwhelming, but it was respectable enough from a horse-race standpoint.
But viewed through the lens of what Haley’s 19% share means for the general election, it represents a strong anti-Trump and/or pro-democracy slice of Republican caucusgoers who are potential targets for the Biden campaign.
Ryan Knapp, a 34-year-old independent who planned to caucus for Haley, is a perfect example. In the Iowa Poll, Knapp described himself as “not very enthusiastic.”
“Mainly picking [Haley] because … she seems like the only sane one, and I’m down to do anything to make sure that Trump doesn’t ever get another opportunity ever again,” he explained.
It’s that sentiment and those voters who weren’t super excited about Haley but still pushed her to a solid third-place finish that provide a sliver of opportunity to President Joe Biden, who will need to cobble together an anti-Trump, pro-democracy coalition of voters to triumph in a likely Biden vs. Trump rematch.
In fact, the final Iowa Poll found that nearly 30% of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers said they would vote for someone other than Trump if he clinches the party’s 2024 nomination.
If Trump’s the nominee, would you vote for him, Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. or some other third-party candidate?
-
Trump: 71%
-
Biden: 11%
-
Kennedy: 6%
-
Third Party: 8%
Among Haley supporters, in particular, Biden ran nearly twice as strong as Trump on the question.
-
Trump: 23%
-
Biden: 43%
-
Kennedy: 8%
-
Third Party: 19%
Beyond Haley’s finish, it’s also worth noting that 51% is not a dominant performance for Trump by any stretch. Trump is running as a virtual incumbent whom everyone in every corner of Iowa knows, and roughly half of Iowa GOP caucusgoers voted against the candidate running as the presumptive Republican nominee.
As Pod Save America co-host Dan Pfeiffer pointed out in his Message Box Substack, 92% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents voted for Trump in 2020 (while Biden got 94% of Democrats/leaners) in Pew’s Validated Voter report on the 2020 election. So winning a bare majority of Iowa’s Republican caucus represents an erosion in his support, not a dominant win.
Bottom line: Coming out of Iowa, Trump walked away with the barest of majorities while Biden has a roughly 20% pool of voters to potentially peel off in a likely Trump rematch.
Yes, overall, the GOP is still plenty cultish and anti-democracy enough to vote Trump, but that’s not news.
What Democrats are looking for is an opening to exploit in order to reassemble a winning anti-Trump, pro-democracy coalition in November. And that 20% is a decent place to start.
