A new poll of New Hampshire voters shows President Joe Biden holding a 7.4 percentage point lead over Donald Trump in a general election rematch, according to the Boston Globe.
The new Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA Today poll published Tuesday also found that Trump holds a nearly 20 percentage point lead over former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire presidential primary.
The Globe wrote:
Overall, the findings offer a glimmer of optimism for hand-wringing Democrats after recent polls showing Biden trailing Trump nationally and in some key swing states. His stronger showing in the New Hampshire poll challenges the narrative that voters are uninspired by the 81-year-old incumbent even if many of his policies remain broadly popular. …
In the hypothetical general election showdown, Biden received nearly 42 percent to Trump’s 34 percent, among 1,000 likely voters, nearly identical to Biden’s victory margin in New Hampshire in 2020. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. notched 8 percent.
Polls this far out from the November election should be viewed with some caution. But they do offer some indication of which issues are most important to voters and potential weak points for candidates in the general election.
What’s noteworthy is that Biden is leading in the general election race, even though 53% of those polled disapprove of his job performance and 65% said the country is on the wrong track.
But Biden got a big boost because the poll found that nearly 30% of likely New Hampshire voters chose “future of American democracy” as the most important issue facing the country, topping other issues such as immigration and the economy. Democrats can only hope that New Hampshire is not an anomaly but is reflective of the rest of the country.
In his first major campaign speech of 2024 delivered last Friday in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, Biden said the election was all about “whether democracy is still America’s sacred cause.” His speech came a day before the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection.
Biden added that the election posed “a clear choice” between Trump, who is “willing to sacrifice our democracy” to “put himself in power,” and Biden’s campaign, which is ”about preserving and strengthening our democracy.”
The Globe wrote that this issue “hurts Trump, who has spent years attacking democratic norms and enters the primary season stamped as an insurrectionist by prosecutors, election officials, and a state Supreme Court for encouraging the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol building.”
The poll found that nearly half of Democrats—49%—said democracy was their top concern, along with 29% of independents. Only 11% of Republican voters named the fate of democracy as their top issue.
Ralph Mecheau, a 69-year-old independent voter, told the Globe that the election was about democracy. He said he plans to vote for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the Jan. 23 Republican primary, but for Biden in the general election if Trump is the GOP nominee.
“I know what it means to take an oath,” Mecheau, an Air Force veteran, told the Globe. “I’m certainly not willing to put in a guy who wants to be an authoritarian.”
But there are some issues that are potential weak points for Biden. About a quarter of voters said immigration was their top concern. The poll found that roughly half of Republican voters cited immigration as the most important issue facing the country.
Nearly half of those polled described the surge of migrants crossing the southern border as “an emergency situation,” and another 32% called it a major problem.
Biden’s election prospects would improve if Senate negotiators could reach a potential border and immigration deal that GOP lawmakers have made a requirement for agreeing to a vote on the president’s request for a supplemental funding package for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. But Trump and his MAGA Republican supporters in the House are loath to agree to any deal that would neutralize what they consider one of their strongest campaign issues.
At 17%, the economy ranked third on the list of issues that New Hampshire voters said they were most concerned about. The Biden administration pointed out last month that the U.S. economy “defied expectations” in 2023: Fears of a recession have faded, the unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for 22 straight months, and the inflation rate has rapidly decelerated since peaking in the summer of 2022.
But the poll results reflected what has been widely reported: the gap between consumer sentiment and the data showing a robust economy. The New Hampshire poll found that 56% of respondents—and 90% of Republicans—said they are not seeing the improvements in the economy reflected in their own lives. Biden’s reelection prospects could improve if this gap closes in the months before Americans cast their ballots.
The poll also pointed to a deep enthusiasm gap, which could prove problematic for Democrats when it comes to getting out the vote. The New Hampshire survey found that 34% of Republican primary voters were “very enthusiastic” about Trump, but only 18% of Democratic primary voters said the same about Biden.
As for the New Hampshire primary, which this year seems unlikely to have any significant impact on the outcome of the nominating contests, the poll found 46% of likely Republican primary voters supporting Trump, 27% backing Haley, Christie in third with 12%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at only 8%.
Biden is not even on the Democratic primary ballot in New Hampshire because he declined to formally enter the race in line with new party rules. The Democratic National Committee, with Biden’s support, wanted to make South Carolina’s Feb. 3 primary the lead-off to the party’s nominating contest. New Hampshire’s Republican government insisted that the Granite State retain its first-in-the-nation primary status, so Democrats are conducting a write-in campaign for Biden.
The Globe poll found that nearly 64% of likely Democratic primary voters said they plan to write in Biden’s name on the ballot, U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota had 6% support, and author Marianne Williamson was at 2%.
