The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. is just one poll, but it’s also the most trusted survey of the Hawkeye State, and the groups just dropped their final pre-Iowa caucus poll of the cycle.
Roughly a month out from the first-in-the-nation caucus on Jan. 15, the latest Selzer poll suggests Donald Trump, whose dominance was never in question, continues to consolidate the vote ahead of next month’s contest.
Here are the standings of the December survey compared against the mid-October results:
- Donald Trump: 51% (Dec. 2-7), 43% (Oct. 22-26), for a net change of +8 points
- Ron DeSantis: 19%, 16%, +3
- Nikki Haley: 16%, 16%, —
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%, 4%, +1
- Chris Christie: 4%, 4%, —
“The field may have shrunk, but it may have made Donald Trump even stronger than he was,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., told the Des Moines Register. “I would call his lead commanding at this point. There’s not much benefit of fewer candidates for either Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.”
None of that is predictive, but the final Iowa Poll does have a solid track record of nailing the trajectory of the race. In 2008, the poll found upstart candidate Barack Obama surging into first place while Hillary Clinton was losing steam. Obama famously went on to win the caucus.
In 2016, the Iowa Poll showed Ted Cruz surging among Republicans, and he would ultimately beat out Trump, who finished second. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton was still running first in the poll, but Bernie Sanders was on the move. When the dust finally settled, Clinton held on to win the caucus, but just barely.
After the previous Iowa Poll in October, Haley looked to be gaining ground, which was good news for her campaign and the prospect that she could isolate Trump in a one-on-one battle for the Republican nomination by following up with a strong showing in New Hampshire.
But DeSantis finishing a relatively strong second in Iowa could throw a wrench in that narrative, making a Trump nomination even more likely.
Markos and Kerry give their thoughts on what the country is facing in 2024. The Republican Party is running on losing issues like abortion and repealing the ACA—with no explanation of what they plan on replacing it with. Trump has a lot of criming to atone for, and the Republican platform remains set on destroying democracy.
