News that the U.S. economy grew by a staggering 4.9% in the third quarter served as yet another reminder that, in spite of voters’ dismal personal perceptions, the country’s economic outlook is quite decent.
Not only did Americans go on a spending spree, accounting for half the growth in gross domestic product, they’ve seen a robust increase in their average income adjusted for inflation.
From an electoral standpoint, the continued strength of the economy should be good news for the White House and proof positive that Bidenomics is delivering for the American people.
Instead, the positive data weighted against negative polling around the economy poses a vexing problem for Democrats: How do you convince people things are pretty great if they don’t feel it? If instead, they feel like things are actually kind of grim?
The disconnect is made worse by voters’ general perception, a calcified remnant from decades past, that Republicans are just better at handling the economy.
An NBC News poll released last month found that nearly half of voters, 49%, said Republicans are better stewards of the economy compared to just 28% who favored Democrats.
For Democrats, and President Joe Biden more specifically, the question is how to reach voters on the economy in a way that connects and they find convincing rather than off-putting. If Biden argues the U.S. is doing great relative to every comparable economy abroad, voters won’t care. If Biden points to the data, voters won’t feel seen and it may simply irritate the intended audience, whose votes he will need next year. It’s a Catch-22.
But a path forward does exist: The secret likely lies in expanding on what voters already believe to be true, rather than a wholesale change of their perceptions about the state of the economy and which party is best equipped to handle it. It’s a strategy that Sarah Longwell, host of The Focus Group podcast, mentioned as a parting thought on this week’s episode.
“Most importantly, you’ve got to unlock the things people already know, or already believe,” Longwell said of the White House. “And so people do believe Biden cares about them more.”
Now that’s something to build a message on—Biden’s empathy and his identification with average Americans rather than corporate muckety mucks and monied donors. At their core, most Americans believe Biden is a decent guy who cares about average Americans. It’s at least partly why Biden’s favorability rating is significantly better than Donald Trump’s, at 13 points underwater versus 24 points underwater for Trump.
In fact, voters more generally already believe the Democratic Party is more concerned than the Republican Party with the everyday needs of Americans—by roughly 10 points, according to Civiqs tracking of the issue. Notably, in the graph below, not only do voters currently believe Democrats are more concerned about their needs than Republicans, 42% – 32%, they have placed Democrats over Republicans in that regard for the duration of the tracking poll, since early 2015.
Biden has a case to make that his policies have prioritized struggling Americans. Think of something like capping the cost of insulin at just $35 per month under Medicare—one of Biden’s most popular accomplishments. The more people hear about something like that, the more they like it.
But the president can’t just focus on his past accomplishments, or the election still becomes a referendum on whether he and Democrats have done enough to boost the purchasing power of people’s pocketbooks.
Biden must figure out how to use his accomplishments to articulate a vision for the economy moving forward—a vision for where he wants Americans to be at the end of his presidency. Growing the economy “from the middle out and bottom up,” as Biden says, isn’t enough. Voters have to be able to envision their place in America, the affordability of their everyday lives, the things they won’t have to worry about, the stressors relieved, and the things they can enjoy, such as quality time with their family. It’s got to be the total package.
It’s got to be more meaningful to voters than a basic discussion about their job options, salary range, and their 401(k). It’s a total quality-of-life package that will place most voters back on the path to achieving the American dream. And just maybe, Biden needs to update the American dream for the new millennium while he’s at.
But at the very least, building on what voters already believe is a starting point President Biden can leverage to frame a winning economic message ahead of his reelection.
