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Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, drew strong criticism even before the grand jury acted. More criticism is likely. The strongest critique will be that paying hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 over a less-than-a-minute “affair” and then lying and denying, falsifying business records, and soliciting whatever other crimes the grand jury charges amount to small potatoes.
That’s a valid criticism. Then again, former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen was sentenced to federal prison for crimes he committed not for his benefit, but for his client. If Cohen can go to federal prison for Trump, then why shouldn’t Trump be prosecuted for the same underlying crime plus his coverup?
The grand jury could also charge Trump in connection with the hush money paid to Karen McDougal, a former Playboy Playmate.
Another indictment seems likely soon in Fulton County, which overlays Atlanta, regarding Trump’s attempt to “find” 11,800 votes so he could be falsely declared the 2020 winner.
Grand jurors—who under Georgia law are largely free to speak about the investigation after their work is done—have said that the scheme to overturn the Georgia election was “massive,” not just that one recorded call in which Trump threatened the Peach State’s top election official, fellow Republican Brad Raffensperger.
Most troubling for Trump is the pending federal indictment on charges that he not only stole highly sensitive national security documents that identified American intelligence agents and assets overseas, but he left them vulnerable to spies visiting Mar-a-Lago and then had his lawyers lie and deny.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump listens as his personal attorney Michael Cohen delivers remarks on his behalf during a campaign stop at the New Spirit Revival Center church in Cleveland Heights, Ohio, U.S., September 21, 2016.
Reuters/JONATHAN ERNST
We know that Trump’s action sparked a worldwide effort to pull some covert agents. Evidence that even one American agent, or a foreign official who was feeding us valuable intelligence, was killed should be game over for Trump. MAGA likely won’t believe it, however. And our government, if that did happen, may decide to favor secrecy over revelation at trial.
Jack Smith, the special counsel in charge of investigating Trump’s theft and hoarding of classified White House documents, has been meticulous in building a case. Every Mar-a-Lago worker is being put under oath, tying down their statements. This ensures against an unexpected defense witness coming forward at trial with a poppycock story to confuse a jury about Trump’s conduct.
In all three cases, Trump and his lawyers will face the same, crucial challenge: when to go to trial.
He can demand a speedy trial, hoping for acquittal, but that runs the risk he would campaign as a felon, possibly from behind bars or house arrest at Trump Tower or Mar-a-Lago. (If imprisoned it would likely be at a military base to avoid dangers from violent inmates.)
A conviction wouldn’t prevent Trump from running or even becoming president again.
In 1920, Eugene V. Debs ran on the Socialist Party ticket while imprisoned in Atlanta for sedition during World War I. Debs won 919,719 votes, 3.4 percent. President Warren G. Harding commuted his sentence in 1921.
Trump’s quest to regain the presidency will likely play in out in one of three ways:
1. Trump secures the GOP nomination a third time. He’ll lose the popular vote by a large margin but could win the Electoral College—as in 2016—thanks to voter suppression in red states and likely interference by the dictators in Russia, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, and other countries that want to provoke chaos in America. Voter turnout against Trump would be crucial in such a contest.
2. Trump is denied the GOP nomination and runs as an independent, guaranteeing Biden or whomever the Democrats nominate a second term by splitting the GOP vote. Republican leaders are so fearful of this happening that they have not only spoken up for Trump, but used party funds to pay Trump family legal bills.
3. Trump realizes he will suffer a humiliating defeat in November 2024 and tells MAGA to boycott the vote, shrinking the Republican vote while handing victory to the Democrats no matter who they run.
In the event Trump faces a hung jury in any of the cases potentially brought against him, you can be sure that he’ll declare victory and condemn the process as a “witch hunt” based on a “hoax.” In such circumstances we should hope that prosecutors possess the resolve to try Trump again.
Trump will continually throw sand, hoping to make the wheels of justice grind to a halt.
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