Home » Who Should Win at the Oscars on Sunday Night?

Who Should Win at the Oscars on Sunday Night?

The Academy Awards are known for several things. (Glamour! Speeches! Scandal!) But if “What are the Academy Awards known for?” had been a Family Feud survey prompt, there’s one thing that certainly would not make the board: getting it right.

In the nine decades of the Oscars, who didn’t win has become the subject of more conversations than who did. And with the industry discourse as spicy as ever this year, we’d be willing to bet on outrage over the voting results being the most common reaction to Sunday night’s telecast on ABC. Everyone has an opinion about which films deserve to win, and everyone gets irrationally angry when they don’t.

Already, there has been controversy over the Best Actress category, in which dark-horse nominee Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) incited an official investigation into whether campaign rules were broken to secure her nomination. Meanwhile, the fact that presumed sure-thing contenders Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till) were snubbed continued the conversation about systemic, institutionalized racism and the lack of opportunity for people of color in the organization.

Racism has also reared its head in the conversation about Everything Everywhere All at Once’s frontrunner status for major categories like Best Picture and Best Director, with anonymous voters barely concealing their bigotry while discussing the film and actress Michelle Yeoh’s chances for victory. Yeoh herself became mired in an 11th-hour scandal after she posted and then deleted screenshots of an article that argued it would be more meaningful for her to win Best Actress as an Asian performer instead of Cate Blanchett (Tár), who already has two wins.

When it was announced this week that Halle Berry will be a presenter on Sunday night, some worried that producers are trying to organize an emotional moment by having the Academy’s first Black Best Actress winner present to the first Asian winner in the category. It’s a stunt that could backfire embarrassingly if Blanchett wins instead of Yeoh—similar to when producers reorganized the 2021 ceremony to have Best Actor as the evening’s final award instead of Best Picture, under the assumption that Chadwick Boseman would win posthumously. (He did not.)

This year, Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the pack with 11 nominations, followed by The Banshees of Inisherin (nine), All Quiet on the Western Front (nine), and Elvis (eight).

Which of them will take home the big prizes? Here’s our rundown of the major categories, our picks for who should win, and who will likely take home the golden statue in the 10 major categories.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin


Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans


Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Should Win: In a rarity when it comes to the Oscars, I (mostly) really like this list, a mix of crowd-pleasing blockbusters and indie fare. My personal favorite is The Banshees of Inisherin, but this absolutely should go to Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s so original, means so much when it comes to representation, and proves there is still a passionate, enthusiastic audience that will turn up at theaters for something besides a blockbuster or a sequel. It’s a film that speaks to this moment, but also to the future of the industry. And it’s great! It’s what a Best Picture should be.

Will Win: It’s hard to stop the kind of momentum that EEAAO has heading into Sunday night.

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Bill Nighy – Living

Should Win: This is the hardest category to make an argument for who should win, because solid cases can be made for all five. For all the mixed feelings I have about The Whale, Brendan Fraser is truly excellent in it and his win would be a major, emotional Oscars moment. Austin Butler floored me in Elvis, giving one of the best biopic performances of all time, in my opinion. But Colin Farrell delivered the kind of performance that his whole career has been building toward in Banshees.

Will Win: I think veterans Fraser and Farrell will split their votes, leaving the stunning performance from Austin Butler—who has had an epic, breakout awards season—to pick up the win.

Best Actress

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Cate Blanchett – Tár

Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who Should Win: This is a tough one because there are people who are really going to hate this argument: Cate Blanchett gives the best acting performance of the year in Tár, but it’s Michelle Yeoh who should win. It wouldn’t just be a symbolic win, either; she is that good in EEAAO and deserves all her recognition. The fact that there are always different factors outside of just the performance that determine who wins—this is the Oscars, remember—should give us all permission to root for this.

Who Will Win: I think Cate Blanchett’s performance is undeniable, and the well-liked and well-connected star will nab her third win.

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who Should Win: No scene this year stuck with me more than the one between Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon on the shore of the lake in Banshees. It should be studied by all up-and-coming actors, and Keoghan should win.

Who Will Win: If there’s one guarantee for Sunday night, it’s that Ke Huy Quan is winning this award.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau – The Whale

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who Should Win: For all the reasons stated above, a win for Kerry Condon would be very deserved. But in this group of five, Stephanie Hsu gave the most complicated, dynamic, and surprising performance—the kind of work that it’s hard to imagine anyone else pulling off with as much grace and power.

Who Will Win: I do think this comes down to a battle of the industry veterans. While Jamie Lee Curtis has been hitting the campaign trail hard, there’s a stronger sense that Angela Bassett is long overdue to be holding a golden statue, and she’ll take it home.

Best Director

The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Todd Field – Tár

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Who Should Win: While I like every film itself in this category more, I think the directing that Steven Spielberg does in The Fabelmans is precisely the kind of career capstone achievement that he and the movie deserve.

Who Will Win: I’m betting on a Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep. The Daniels will take this.

Best Original Screenplay

The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Todd Field – Tár

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans

Who Should Win: It’s a repeat of the Best Director lineup. Everything Everywhere All at Once certainly is inventive, and Tár is provocative. But The Banshees of Inisherin is so profound, surprising, and lyrical, with dialogue that lived up to the sweeping visuals.

Who Will Win: If there’s a major category that EEAAO misses, I think it’s this one. There’s a case for Field or Spielberg and Kushner to take it, but I think McDonagh and The Banshees of Inisherin wins this one.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front

Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick

Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Kazuo Ishiguro – Living

Sarah Polley – Women Talking

Who Should Win: I deviously like to imagine the hysteria if Top Gun: Maverick won this award. (Loved the movie, but it’s not something you watch and think, “What a screenplay!”) I thought what Sarah Polley did with Women Talking was stunning.

Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front is a major player with lots of international support, which could swing things in its favor here. But I think most voters will rally around Women Talking.

Best Documentary Feature

A House Made of Splinters

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

All That Breathes

Fire of Love


Who Should Win: Fire of Love is one of my favorite documentaries in a really long time. Navalny is the kind of film that sticks with you for weeks after you see it. But there was something so simply human, yet so heartbreaking about A House Made of Splinters, about the traumas that bond children in a Ukrainian orphanage, that has me rooting for it.

Who Will Win: There’s a lot of support for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, for good reason. (Truly, all five nominees in this category are great.) It’s probably the title with the most “buzz,” which I think will carry it to a win.

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turing Red

Who Should Win: What a category! Puss in Boots: The Last Wish had no business rising to that level of excellence. (I’m serious!) Turning Red is as powerful as it is fun. But Marcel the Shell with Shoes On moved me, wrecked me, inspired me, astonished me—all the things that a great film is supposed to do. Vote for the (literal) little guy!

Who Will Win: There’s no win here that would be considered non-deserving. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, which has tallied an impressive haul of precursor awards, takes this one.

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March 2023