The Academy Awards are known for several things. (Glamour! Speeches! Scandal!) But if “What are the Academy Awards known for?” had been a Family Feud survey prompt, there’s one thing that certainly would not make the board: getting it right.
In the nine decades of the Oscars, who didn’t win has become the subject of more conversations than who did. And with the industry discourse as spicy as ever this year, we’d be willing to bet on outrage over the voting results being the most common reaction to Sunday night’s telecast on ABC. Everyone has an opinion about which films deserve to win, and everyone gets irrationally angry when they don’t.
Already, there has been controversy over the Best Actress category, in which dark-horse nominee Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) incited an official investigation into whether campaign rules were broken to secure her nomination. Meanwhile, the fact that presumed sure-thing contenders Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till) were snubbed continued the conversation about systemic, institutionalized racism and the lack of opportunity for people of color in the organization.
Racism has also reared its head in the conversation about Everything Everywhere All at Once’s frontrunner status for major categories like Best Picture and Best Director, with anonymous voters barely concealing their bigotry while discussing the film and actress Michelle Yeoh’s chances for victory. Yeoh herself became mired in an 11th-hour scandal after she posted and then deleted screenshots of an article that argued it would be more meaningful for her to win Best Actress as an Asian performer instead of Cate Blanchett (Tár), who already has two wins.
When it was announced this week that Halle Berry will be a presenter on Sunday night, some worried that producers are trying to organize an emotional moment by having the Academy’s first Black Best Actress winner present to the first Asian winner in the category. It’s a stunt that could backfire embarrassingly if Blanchett wins instead of Yeoh—similar to when producers reorganized the 2021 ceremony to have Best Actor as the evening’s final award instead of Best Picture, under the assumption that Chadwick Boseman would win posthumously. (He did not.)
This year, Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the pack with 11 nominations, followed by The Banshees of Inisherin (nine), All Quiet on the Western Front (nine), and Elvis (eight).
Which of them will take home the big prizes? Here’s our rundown of the major categories, our picks for who should win, and who will likely take home the golden statue in the 10 major categories.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Should Win: In a rarity when it comes to the Oscars, I (mostly) really like this list, a mix of crowd-pleasing blockbusters and indie fare. My personal favorite is The Banshees of Inisherin, but this absolutely should go to Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s so original, means so much when it comes to representation, and proves there is still a passionate, enthusiastic audience that will turn up at theaters for something besides a blockbuster or a sequel. It’s a film that speaks to this moment, but also to the future of the industry. And it’s great! It’s what a Best Picture should be.
Will Win: It’s hard to stop the kind of momentum that EEAAO has heading into Sunday night.
Best Actor
Austin Butler – Elvis
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
Should Win: This is the hardest category to make an argument for who should win, because solid cases can be made for all five. For all the mixed feelings I have about The Whale, Brendan Fraser is truly excellent in it and his win would be a major, emotional Oscars moment. Austin Butler floored me in Elvis, giving one of the best biopic performances of all time, in my opinion. But Colin Farrell delivered the kind of performance that his whole career has been building toward in Banshees.
Will Win: I think veterans Fraser and Farrell will split their votes, leaving the stunning performance from Austin Butler—who has had an epic, breakout awards season—to pick up the win.
Best Actress
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Cate Blanchett – Tár
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: This is a tough one because there are people who are really going to hate this argument: Cate Blanchett gives the best acting performance of the year in Tár, but it’s Michelle Yeoh who should win. It wouldn’t just be a symbolic win, either; she is that good in EEAAO and deserves all her recognition. The fact that there are always different factors outside of just the performance that determine who wins—this is the Oscars, remember—should give us all permission to root for this.
Who Will Win: I think Cate Blanchett’s performance is undeniable, and the well-liked and well-connected star will nab her third win.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: No scene this year stuck with me more than the one between Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon on the shore of the lake in Banshees. It should be studied by all up-and-coming actors, and Keoghan should win.
Who Will Win: If there’s one guarantee for Sunday night, it’s that Ke Huy Quan is winning this award.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: For all the reasons stated above, a win for Kerry Condon would be very deserved. But in this group of five, Stephanie Hsu gave the most complicated, dynamic, and surprising performance—the kind of work that it’s hard to imagine anyone else pulling off with as much grace and power.
Who Will Win: I do think this comes down to a battle of the industry veterans. While Jamie Lee Curtis has been hitting the campaign trail hard, there’s a stronger sense that Angela Bassett is long overdue to be holding a golden statue, and she’ll take it home.
Best Director
The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field – Tár
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Who Should Win: While I like every film itself in this category more, I think the directing that Steven Spielberg does in The Fabelmans is precisely the kind of career capstone achievement that he and the movie deserve.
Who Will Win: I’m betting on a Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep. The Daniels will take this.
Best Original Screenplay
The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field – Tár
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans
Who Should Win: It’s a repeat of the Best Director lineup. Everything Everywhere All at Once certainly is inventive, and Tár is provocative. But The Banshees of Inisherin is so profound, surprising, and lyrical, with dialogue that lived up to the sweeping visuals.
Who Will Win: If there’s a major category that EEAAO misses, I think it’s this one. There’s a case for Field or Spielberg and Kushner to take it, but I think McDonagh and The Banshees of Inisherin wins this one.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front
Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick
Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Kazuo Ishiguro – Living
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Who Should Win: I deviously like to imagine the hysteria if Top Gun: Maverick won this award. (Loved the movie, but it’s not something you watch and think, “What a screenplay!”) I thought what Sarah Polley did with Women Talking was stunning.
Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front is a major player with lots of international support, which could swing things in its favor here. But I think most voters will rally around Women Talking.
Best Documentary Feature
A House Made of Splinters
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
Navalny
Who Should Win: Fire of Love is one of my favorite documentaries in a really long time. Navalny is the kind of film that sticks with you for weeks after you see it. But there was something so simply human, yet so heartbreaking about A House Made of Splinters, about the traumas that bond children in a Ukrainian orphanage, that has me rooting for it.
Who Will Win: There’s a lot of support for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, for good reason. (Truly, all five nominees in this category are great.) It’s probably the title with the most “buzz,” which I think will carry it to a win.
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turing Red
Who Should Win: What a category! Puss in Boots: The Last Wish had no business rising to that level of excellence. (I’m serious!) Turning Red is as powerful as it is fun. But Marcel the Shell with Shoes On moved me, wrecked me, inspired me, astonished me—all the things that a great film is supposed to do. Vote for the (literal) little guy!
Who Will Win: There’s no win here that would be considered non-deserving. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, which has tallied an impressive haul of precursor awards, takes this one.
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