This is Zelenskyy’s first trip outside of Ukraine since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, 2022. His presence in Kyiv while Russia forces were closing in during the opening days of the war provided an incredible anchor for a nation in crisis. Since then, Zelenskyy has visited locations such as the cities of Izyum and Kherson to help Ukrainians celebrate liberation of large areas from Russian control. He also made that amazing visit to the besieged city of Bakhmut, speaking with the defenders of the city on the eve of his departure for Washington.
Planning for this visit has been reportedly taking place behind the scenes for weeks, and the security concerns about this visit have been demanding. Even before the reason was revealed, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi was encouraging members of Congress to remain in Washington tonight for something important. It will be interesting to see how many Republican members of Congress are there, though it’s hard to imagine anyone not taking advantage of the opportunity to meet with a man so at the center of a critical moment in history.
There may be some surprises during the speech tonight, but there are a couple of certainties. One is that we’ll be hearing about the most recent $1.8 billion assistance package. That’s the package that is finally going to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine, and hopefully more details about what that package will include will be revealed today.
When and where the Patriot battery will be deployed has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian troops will spend some time in Germany learning to use and maintain the system before it is dispatched to Ukraine. Also included in the latest package are an undisclosed number of Joint Direct Attack Munitions kits (JDAMs). These are kits that can be used to modify dumb bombs deployed by planes into smart bombs with precision guidance systems. They’re still deployed from planes, so they require a degree of air power to be useful. However, this currently doesn’t appear to be connected to the U.S. providing any American planes to Ukraine. In addition, the new package will include the usual: more vehicles, more ammo, more HIMARS rockets.
When the Ukrainian delegation arrives in Washington, there is definitely one item on their shopping list that is not in the current package: The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). ATACMS rockets have a range of up to 300 kilometers, and can be fired from either HIMARS or the M270 MLRS. Previously the U.S. has refused to provide Ukraine with ATACMS out of fears that the range would allow these missiles to be used against targets in Russia. However, since the U.S. has recently changed its announced policy and recognized that Ukraine legitimately needs to strike some targets within Russia to secure the liberation of Ukrainian territory, the possibility of securing a truckload of ATACMS might be much better than in the past.
One of the things we’re going to be hearing about, both at that speech before Congress and when Zelenskyy meets with Biden, is the spending bill currently before the House. That bill, which Pelosi is hoping to push through in the few days that remain, contains another $44.9 billion in assistance for Ukraine. That is enough to fund everything Ukraine is expected to need through the end of next year—a year that will hopefully see an end to the invasion. Republicans have been pushing to have a smaller stopgap funding bill passed until a Republican majority takes control of the House in January. That bill contains just $12 billion in proposed funding for Ukraine. No doubt Pelosi hopes that Zelenskyy’s appearance and appeal to the Congress will help move the needle on getting the full spending bill through before the deadline.
In any case, stay tuned tonight. We’ll be watching.
Ukrainian sources are reporting that one day after Zelenskyy left the area, Wagner staged a large assault on Bakhmut. Scenes from multiple sources around the city’s eastern edge show intense, close-range combat in what look to be the now-familiar ruins of factories and industrial sites along Patrisa Lumumby Street.
Ukrainian sources indicate that the first wave of this attack was not just repelled but destroyed, resulting in the loss of at least 50 members of the Russian force. However, as of this writing (11 AM ET, 6 PM in Kyiv) heavy fighting was reportedly continuing in the area as Ukraine follows up the defeat of the failed Russian attack with a counterattack of their own.
Whether Ukraine intends to press Russian forces further from Bakhmut is unclear. So far it’s been difficult for either side to significantly shift the front lines that have been just out of the city for months. However, Ukrainian forces have apparently completed the removal of any remaining Russian forces that had reached the residential areas in a push that ended last week.
Soldier: “… enemy takes so many losses, I don’t know, maybe some kind of recycling process of comrades in progress.”
Oh, those Russian troops are getting recycled all right. Just not as soldiers.
Also on Wednesday, heavy fighting is reported in the Soledar area 10 kilometers northeast of Bakhmut. There are a number of areas along the eastern front that have seen repeated assaults. However, this little triangle of towns, including Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Nova Kamyanka, is probably second only to Bakhmut in the sheer amount of Russian bodies that have been expended in an attempt to capture the location.
North of Svatove there’s good news, better news, and WTF news. The good news is that Ukraine is reporting pushing back Russian assaults and suffering shelling at two locations northeast of Kupyansk. The better news is that Ukraine reportedly repelled a Russian attack on the village of Pidkuichansk, northwest of Svatove.
What’s important about Pidkuichansk is that it’s both close to Svatove and it’s on the eastern side of the P07 highway. After weeks of smacking each other back and forth at Kuzemivka and the neighboring town of Novoselivske, it seems like Ukraine may have decided to bypass that location for now and just continue toward Svatove from the northwest. This not only puts Ukrainian forces within 7 kilometers of Svatove on the north, it suggests that Ukraine is very close to encircling those remaining Russian-occupied locations on the western side of the highway. Any remaining Russian forces at Kolomyichykha, Patalakhivka, and Nezhuryne should be worried about this section being sliced loose from Russian lines.
The not good news comes in the form of reports of fighting at Masyutivka, a village north of Kupyansk that is small enough I previously didn’t have it on the map. The presence of Russian forces here suggest there’s a whole pocket of at least disputed territory I had previously failed to indicate. However, other sources continued to confirm the presence of Ukrainian forces along the P79 highway from Dvorichna to Tavilzhanka.
Is this a Russian advance in a peculiar spot, or holdouts that hung in there even as Ukraine liberated all the area around them? Um … maybe.
I should also mention that as Ukraine is reporting what appears to be an advance to Pidkuichansk, Russia is reporting that they’ve conducted a “successful counterattack” along the very same axis all the way to Stelmakhivka, “denying access to the P07 to Ukraine.” Past experience suggest that 90% of all reported Russian advances exist nowhere but in the heads of propaganda writers, but we’ll probably have to wait until tomorrow to see if Ukraine continues to hold reported positions in this area.
Further south, I have no new word on fighting near either Holykove or Zhytlivka north of Kreminna. The only word of fighting on Wednesday appears to be south and west of the city, especially in those wooded areas where Ukraine has been pushing slowly forward. Russia is reportedly attacking to the west near Ploshchanka, hoping to push Ukrainian forces from the P66 highway at that location.
Map note: When we come back after the first of the year, I’m thinking of eliminating the “yellow zone” from these maps. Originally this was intended to mark areas of active conflict, but over time I’ve allowed it to spread until its just the boundary between Ukrainian and Russian control. All too often it’s not even doing that, but only marking locations where there has been fighting, but no immediate conflict is known. For example, on the map above, I have no reason to believe Russia isn’t in control of Kolomyichykha, and no reports of recent fighting, so why isn’t it red? Anyway, I’m likely to switch to just red for areas known to be occupied by Russia, blue for those areas known to be liberated by Ukraine, and no color for areas where we just don’t know. One less set of polygons to maintain.
Hey look, you can even follow Zelenskyy’s plane in flight. Because that’s the way this works, Elon.
