Russian ally Belarus announced snap military drills Tuesday in a move that has raised concerns that Minsk could be planning to join the war on Ukraine.
The Belarusian mission, designed to check the military’s combat readiness, is based on an analysis of Russia’s experience waging war in Ukraine, according to Belta.
The large-scale drills are unusual because they are “unexpected” for the military, said Aleksandr Volfovich, State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, according to Belta. He explained that Belarus is running the drills in order to handle the war in Ukraine if the situation around the country’s borders “deteriorates.”
“To put it simply, those are permanently ready forces,” he said.
Some Belarusian military units are making their way towards the border with Ukraine and moving military gear with them, according to the Belarusian Hajun project. Units from the 38th separate air assault group are reportedly destined to head to Malorita, which is around 15 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, as well as to the town of Mokrany, which is about three kilometers from the border.
The Chairman of the Brest City Executive Committee in Belarus, Alexander Rogachuk, announced on Telegram that the troops are advancing as soon as possible.
Belarus has previously served as a launchpad for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war plans in Ukraine in recent months, including Russia’s failed attempt to capture Kyiv in the early days of the war. While at times Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has toed the line between claiming he wants peace and providing Putin with full-throttled support by allowing Russian soldiers and equipment into Belarus, these snap drills could be a signal that Putin has enveloped Belarus into its war plans more fully.
The scale of the snap drills will be increased soon, according to Belta. Troops will be instructed to march long distances and then guard installations, occupy firing positions, and conduct firing and tactical tasks. The troops will also build bridge crossings on the Neman and Berezina rivers, Rogachuk said.
It’s not the first time Belarusian military activities have raised suspicions that it might be stepping up to contribute to the fight with Ukraine. Over the summer, Belarusian authorities announced the country was creating a new military unit along the border with Ukraine as well as a people’s militia. Just last month, Russia deployed thousands of troops and armored vehicles to Belarus, claiming they were working on readiness and defenses.
The White House has since assessed that it may have been a move aimed at helping Russia distract Ukraine from its operations in the south and east of the country.
“While they claim it’s to bolster their bilateral readiness it could also be an effort to try to pin down Ukrainian forces in the north of the country,” John Kirby, a White House National Security Council Coordinator, said last month.
In recent weeks Russia also deployed nuclear-capable missiles to Belarus, according to an intelligence report.
Already, concerns have begun to bubble up in neighboring Ukraine and Poland over what Belarus might have up its sleeve with the military drills. Military officials from both countries have expressed worries about the snap inspections in Belarus and agreed to coordinate joint action in the coming days, according to NBC.
