Plenty of polling suggested that the economy and inflation were indeed top issues for a majority of voters. Ostensibly, people would take a look at their monthly income, their expenses, maybe their 401(k) if they were lucky enough to have one, and conclude they weren’t better off than when Joe Biden took office. Of course, maybe they were. Maybe they didn’t even have a job when Biden took office. Maybe the child tax credit, the one-time pandemic payment, and the continued pause on student loan repayments were lifesavers for some folks.
But that never seemed to be part of the conversation, mostly because President Biden’s job approvals were stuck in the low- to mid-40s and his handling of the economy and inflation generally polled even worse.
As CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy wrote in October, “just 32% of the public approves of his handling of inflation (up from 25% in summer) and 36% of his handling of the economy as a whole (up from 30%).”
Precious few pollsters and pundits managed to dig below the top lines to realize that not everyone who expressed concern about the economy was going to vote against Democrats. In fact, for many Democrats and some independents, issues beyond the economy proved more critical to their thinking.
As I noted the weekend before the election, a Detroit News/Glengariff poll of Michigan voters conducted Oct. 26-28 found that while a 40% plurality of independents named “inflation” as the most important issue facing the state, a 35% plurality of independents said abortion was the issue most motivating them to go to the polls.
Likewise, the final preelection poll from Daily Kos/Civiqs found that 52% of Democrats named abortion as the most important issue driving their vote, as did nearly a quarter of independents. Fair elections and democracy were the second most important issue for both Democrats (43%) and independents (31%)—an existential concern that many analysts and pollsters either dismissed or forgot to even include in their polling.
| TOTAL | DEMOCRAT | REPUBLICAN | INDEPENDENT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECONOMY/JOBS/INFLATION | 58% | 38% | 83% | 60% |
| FAIR ELECTIONS/DEMOCRACY | 34% | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| IMMIGRATION | 32% | 19% | 60% | 30% |
| ABORTION | 31% | 52% | 14% | 24% |
Multiple surveys also showed abortion gaining resonance over time rather than losing it. In October, the Kaiser health tracking poll found that 50% of voters said the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe made them more motivated to vote—a 7-point bump from July when the opinion had just landed and a 13-point bump from May when the opinion first leaked to the public.
We now know, of course, that abortion-related issues were key to Democrats wildly outperforming the expectations of most Beltway pundits. On election night, exit polls found abortion nearly keeping pace with inflation as voters’ top issue, with 27% saying abortion topped their list while 31% said it was inflation. Fully 85% of Democratic voters also said they were “angry” Roe v. Wade was overturned, and 76% of Democrats called abortion their most important issue in exit polling.
A post-election analysis by Kaiser also found abortion was a major motivator in getting low-propensity midterm voters to the polls, including young voters, people of color, and first-time voters.
About four in ten (38%) voters overall said that the Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to an abortion had a major impact on their decision about whether to vote in this year’s election. The share citing the decision as a major motivator was highest among Black women under age 50 (61%), Hispanic women under age 50 (58%), those who voted for Democratic Congressional candidates (56%), first-time voters (54%), voters under age 30 (53%), and those who said they were angry about the Supreme Court’s abortion decision (55%). …
Nationally, nearly half (47%) of all voters say the Court’s decision had a major impact on which candidates they supported in this election, including almost two-thirds (64%) of those who voted for Democratic House candidates.
In other words, contrary to ‘90s-era slogan coined by Bill Clinton’s campaign braintrust, it wasn’t simply “the economy, stupid” this cycle. Nor was it the economy in the 2018 midterm that Democrats absolutely dominated.
As Walter noted in a post-election interview on The Focus Group podcast, “This was supposed to be an election about the economy, and yet, the candidates … the issue of abortion make this much more of a choice election rather than one just about the economy.”
Walter added that a similar phenomenon played out in the last midterm when the economy was humming by most standards. At the time, Republicans assured everyone they would be fine despite Donald Trump’s rock-bottom approvals.
“Republicans were like, ‘This will be fine—the economy’s awesome, people are really happy with their 401(k) and Trump has actual positive approval ratings on the economy,’” explained Walter. But ultimately, she added, “Voters were like, ‘Yeah, the economy’s doing well. I’m not voting for a Republican. Are you kidding me? I hate Trump—I’m not voting for them.'”
In fact, in 2018, voters who “somewhat” disapproved of Trump voted for Democrats by 30 points, according to Walter. This cycle, “somewhat” disapprovers of Biden, still voted for Democrats by 4 points.
That’s a reflection of the fact that Trump and the Republican Party, as it stands today, repel a majority of Americans. Trumpism is that extreme. And as long as Republicans fail to sever themselves from Trumpism and the extremist candidates it yields in GOP primaries, the economy won’t necessarily have the final word on how Americans vote.
That is particularly true in midterms, where wealthier, suburban voters—who used to favor Republicans—play an outsized role in the outcome. With that cohort, GOP extremism on issues like abortion, education, and election denialism will continue to hobble Republicans in the general election regardless of whether voters like the look of their 401(k).
The Republican Party continues to flail and point fingers at one another. The traditional media pretends it did not completely blow it on predicting a “red wave” a few weeks ago. On today’s episode, Markos is joined by Democratic political strategist Simon Rosenberg. Rosenberg was one of the few outsiders who, like Daily Kos, kept telling the world that these midterm races were closer than was being reported. The two do a little gloating about being right in their optimism coming into the 2022 midterm elections, give their analysis of Democratic candidates’ successes, and point to signs that the Republican Party is terrified as we head into the 2024 election cycle.
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